Following the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Sea-Intelligence has released an analytical report examining the potential effects on global container shipping if carriers resume transiting the Suez Canal. While the reopening of the Red Sea route remains uncertain — as the Houthis have not declared a ceasefire and shipping lines refrained from switching back during previous pauses in hostilities — the report models the likely consequences of such a change once conditions allow.
Impacts of a Red Sea reopening
The analysis identifies two primary impacts of a Red Sea reopening: a significant release of global vessel capacity currently absorbed by longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope, and a potential surge in cargo arrivals into Europe that could strain port operations. According to Sea-Intelligence’s modelling, reverting Asia–Europe and Asia–North America East Coast services to the shorter Suez Canal route would free up roughly 2.1 million TEU of nominal capacity, equivalent to about 6.5% of the global container fleet. This sudden restoration of capacity could reshape supply-demand dynamics across major trade lanes.
However, the reopening would also generate immediate operational challenges. If all shipping lines were to switch back to the Suez route at once, European ports could experience a 39% increase in weekly handling volumes — both imports and exports — compared to previous record levels. Even with a phased return over an eight-week period, volumes would still peak around 10% above historical highs. Sea-Intelligence warns that given the severe congestion already seen in March 2025, when volumes last hit record levels, European port infrastructure would face considerable strain in managing this renewed surge.
The report further notes that such a shift would likely have ripple effects throughout the logistics chain. While carriers could benefit from shorter sailing times and lower operational costs, ports may struggle with capacity constraints, yard space shortages, and workforce pressures. Freight forwarders and shippers could see short-term rate volatility and potential delays as the market adjusts to the new balance between supply and demand.
Ultimately, Sea-Intelligence concludes that the manner and timing of the industry’s return to the Suez Canal will be critical. A sudden, coordinated switch could shock the market and create congestion chaos, while a carefully phased transition might mitigate some of the impact — though even that would still exceed Europe’s prior throughput peaks. The analysis underscores the need for close coordination between carriers, ports, and policymakers to manage the re-entry into the Red Sea corridor smoothly once conditions allow.
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Source: Sea-Intelligence
