Optimistic Outlook: Dry Bulk Markets Surge Amidst Global Trends



On the C5 front, we see enquiries from miners, some operators, and tenders for late February to early March dates. Things are quieter on the East Australia coal, South Africa and Indian business front with limited enquiries. On C3 ex Brazil to China and West Africa, enquiries are present for late February and full March dates with most centered on the latter. Far East tonnage is moderately abundant with ballasting tonnage weighing heavily on the first half of March. Ballasters for second half of February is tight. On C5, the week started with fixtures concluding at mid USD 9 pmt levels, retreating to high USD 8 pmt levels by mid-week. On C3, we see a spike to USD 24 pmt levels for early March dates. One known fixture of a 181k dwt, 2011-built, non scrubber for 12 months at USD 25,000 per day.


The number of vessels heading to South America has recently surpassed the significant threshold of 375, indicating a bullish market trend, as historically, exceeding this count has led to at least an 80% market rise in the following weeks. Meanwhile, vessel counts to Australia, Indonesia, and Russia have reached near all-time highs, suggesting an imminent rally based on average seasonal patterns. Despite varied activity across regions, with some Asian countries returning from holidays and mixed dynamics in the Atlantic and Pacific, the overall market tone remains cautiously optimistic. The Atlantic shows signs of firmness, especially for fronthaul demand, with the ECSA market showing resilience, with hire rates rebounding, supported by FFA and owners holding firm on target rates, while in the Pacific, rates have risen, signaling a potentially busy period post-holiday.


Slow start to the week with traders just coming back from the holiday season. Markets have been quiet in view of the Lunar New Year celebrations coupled with the Brazilian carnival. The past week has been very active with fresh orders ex ECSA driving the market with forward FH cargoes. Ultras being fixed at 18-19k levels for FH trips. Similar rate levels seen for USG-Far East runs. TA paying mid 19,000 levels. The USG market continues to remain firm due to tight tonnage availability. Spot FH biz being concluded at higher than the last done levels whereas the TA biz remains stable and rates as per last done levels. On the other hand, the Pacific market has remained firm as tonnage is tight, especially on the Ultra sizes. WCI-China salt biz fixed at over USD 23,000 levels. Even a short MEG-EC India trip was reportedly fixed at USD 22,000 levels just prior holiday season. Market is firm in MEG-WC India with Ultras being fixed at upwards of 23k for a trip to EC India. The market is expected to pick up and anticipate a bull run in the short-term horizon. Period interest remains, and we see more and more deals being concluded.

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Source : Fearnleys