- Tanker newbuilding (NB) deliveries are expected to surge significantly over the next few years, with 2026 and 2027 delivery estimates exceeding last year’s forecasts.
- The tanker orderbook grew from 7% to 15% of the fleet in 2024, driven by increased capacity at Chinese yards and a slowdown in orders for other ship types.
- Predicting long-term fleet growth remains challenging due to variables like emissions regulations, geopolitical factors, and the phase-out of older tankers.
The tanker market is preparing for a sharp increase in new building (NB) deliveries, far surpassing expectations from last year. Enhanced data tracking and robust order activity, particularly in 2024, have reshaped the outlook for 2026 and beyond. This report examines the factors driving these changes, their implications for fleet growth, and the challenges in predicting long-term trends, reports Breakweave Advisors.
Tanker Deliveries in 2026: A Revised Outlook
Forecasts for tanker deliveries in 2026 have risen by 77% compared to last year’s predictions. Coated tankers lead the surge, with Afra/LR2 and MR deliveries more than doubling previous estimates.
VLCCs and Suezmaxes also show notable increases, reflecting strong ordering activity throughout 2024.
A Busy 2027: Deliveries Already Exceed Expectations
Scheduled deliveries for 2027 have already outpaced earlier projections, with VLCCs, Suezmaxes, and MRs all seeing significant growth. Chinese yards are expanding capacity, targeting more tanker slots.
This shift is aided by a slowdown in LNG carrier and container ship orders, leaving space for tanker construction.
Long-Term Fleet Growth: The Role of Capacity and Retirements
Predictions for 2028 and 2029 deliveries remain speculative, influenced by NB prices, geopolitical factors, and emissions regulations. Older tanker retirements, particularly among ships over 20 years old, play a crucial role in balancing supply and demand.
Replacement demand, however, is difficult to forecast due to evolving market conditions and regulatory changes.
Market Dynamics and Fleet Adjustments
While the tanker market faces uncertainties, China’s economic performance and emissions rules will likely shape fleet growth.
Recent order cancellations highlight the potential for overestimating future capacity, echoing patterns from past supercycles when significant portions of the orderbook were ultimately removed.
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Source: Breakweave Advisors
