- The global tanker fleet is experiencing a marked shift in its age profile, with older vessels growing rapidly across all segments.
- By 2029, nearly 34% of the fleet will be over 21 years old, up from 17.6% in 2025, placing pressure on renewal and compliance.
- Smaller tankers like Handy/MR1 and Panamax/LR1 are facing the sharpest aging increases, prompting concerns over scrapping, replacements, and environmental performance.
According to Xclusiv Shipbrokers, the global tanker industry is on the brink of a significant aging dilemma. While the current orderbook suggests active efforts toward modernization and expansion, the pace of aging across all vessel sizes threatens to outstrip these renewal efforts, reshaping the global fleet by 2029.
Fleet Composition in 2025 Reflects Uneven Aging
As of 2025, the tanker fleet comprises 7,735 vessels, of which 1,366—or around 17.6%—are older than 21 years. However, aging is disproportionately concentrated among smaller tankers. Handy/MR1 vessels show the highest aging ratio, with 34% exceeding 21 years of age, followed by small tankers at 19%. In contrast, MR2 tankers have a relatively youthful profile, with only 11% in the older bracket. Larger categories such as Aframax/LR2, Suezmax, and VLCCs maintain moderate aging ratios around 16–17%.
Sharp Rise in Aged Vessels Forecast by 2029
By 2029, the global fleet is projected to grow modestly to 8,948 vessels. However, the number of vessels older than 21 years will more than double to 3,023—an alarming 34% of the fleet. Handy/MR1 tankers will see 56% of their fleet exceed 21 years, up from 34% in 2025. Panamax/LR1 tankers follow closely, with 46% projected to age beyond that threshold. Meanwhile, MR2 vessels will double their aging share to 27%, and even the largest tankers—Aframax, Suezmax, and VLCC/ULCC—will show notable increases in aging, reaching 31%, 25%, and 26%, respectively.
Smaller Tankers Face Steepest Aging Climb
The data reveals a disproportionate aging burden on smaller tankers. Handy/MR1 and small tankers will see the sharpest rise in aged tonnage, due to both an older existing fleet and potentially slower renewal cycles. Panamax/LR1 also emerges as a segment of concern, with nearly half of the fleet expected to be over 21 years old by 2029. These sectors are likely to experience increased scrapping activity or require urgent investment in new tonnage to remain competitive and compliant.
Market Preference Shifts to Younger, Cleaner Vessels
Charterers are expected to increasingly favor newer tankers by 2029, driven by heightened fuel efficiency and tighter environmental regulations. Older vessels—especially those over 21 years—will face mounting difficulties in securing contracts, as performance and emissions standards become more stringent and costly to meet.
Orderbook Outlook and Compliance Pressure
Despite a robust orderbook of 1,213 tankers slated for delivery through 2029, the industry faces a pressing need to align newbuild deliveries with both fleet expansion and the accelerated retirement of aging ships. Without careful balance, the sector could face a supply squeeze, compounded by environmental mandates that could fast-track the phase-out of older, less efficient vessels.
This evolving fleet dynamic will require coordinated action by shipowners, charterers, and regulators to ensure sustainability, safety, and economic viability through the end of the decade.
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Source: safety4sea
