- Crude oil markets remained firm across major regions, with AG VLCC rates climbing, West Africa and Mediterranean Suezmaxes holding steady, and US Gulf VLCC activity gradually strengthening.
- Clean products saw gains in LR1s and steady sentiment in MRs, with some late-week softening in AG and Med Handies recalibrating after midweek highs.
- Dirty products were mixed, with Handies holding levels in the Med, MRs softer in both basins, and Panamaxes steady after early-week gains.
- Aframax demand continues to be shaped by Russia-linked geopolitics, sanctions, and shifting trade flows, with additional influence from structural changes in global crude production.
The Aframax market’s trajectory in recent years has been shaped by shifting crude trade patterns, geopolitical tensions, and evolving sanctions regimes, with Russian-linked flows playing a central role. Changing supply sources, adjustments in refinery demand, and broader tanker market dynamics continue to influence trade volumes and tonne-mile demand, while policy developments add further uncertainty to the sector’s outlook. These factors, along with emerging structural changes in production and export patterns, remain key in determining future Aframax demand, according to the latest analysis from Gibson.
Crude Oil
The crude oil tanker market saw a generally firm tone across major trading regions last week, led by strong activity in the Arabian Gulf where VLCC charterers moved quickly to secure end-August positions, lifting TD3 rates by over WS10 points from the previous week to around WS56. Suezmaxes in the Basrah/West segment held firm, with owners aiming for levels above 140 x WS55 via C/C and anticipating stronger Eastbound returns in line with a firmer VLCC market.
Aframax sentiment in Asia improved as increased AG liftings and off-market fixtures tightened tonnage, while the LR2 sector drew some units away from DPP trade, keeping Indo/Oz rates steady at 80 x WS105. In West Africa, VLCC rates edged higher, supported by surrounding regional strength and selective fixtures, with WAF/East assessed near WS55 and Suezmax TD20 at about WS130 amid a tight tonnage list. The Mediterranean Aframax market remained constrained on supply but limited on fresh cargoes, with Ceyhan runs slightly below WS150 and TD6 steady at WS130; Libya/East is estimated at $4.8m, with scarce Eastbound tonnage potentially pushing rates higher.
In the US Gulf, VLCCs showed gradual firming despite measured cargo release, with USG/China pegged at $7.2m and Brazil/East at WS54, while Aframaxes eased to WS150 on TD25 before stabilizing. Suezmaxes in the Americas tracked gains from West Africa, rising 15–20 WS points. The North Sea Aframax sector was quiet, with steady returns typical for the time of year.
Clean Products
The clean products market recorded generally positive sentiment across key regions last week, with notable strength in the Arabian Gulf. LR1s led gains, with TC5 climbing from WS150 to WS177.5 and AG/UKC Jet runs at $3.3m for 60,000 mt, while shorthaul X-AG rose by about $150k. LR2s were quieter, holding TC1 at WS150 before easing late in the week as supply improved; 90,000 mt ULSD Yanbu/UKC moved to $2.85m, with potential for up to 10% correction unless early-week demand revives. MRs in the AG/Red Sea stayed active, with TC17 averaging 35 x WS250 and TC12 at 35 x WS175 before softening slightly to WS242.5 as tonnage built toward week’s end.
In the UK Continent, MR availability was limited by inbound economics, prompting volatility and occasional premiums for replacements, with 37 x WS125 to the US Atlantic and WS145 to West Africa. Handies started softer at 30 x WS145 for XUKC before rebounding on increased naphtha and TC23 activity, reaching WS152.5–155; however, late-week failures tempered momentum.
In the Mediterranean, MR rates were steady, last done at WS137.5 to UKC on a naphtha stem, with interest in potential USG opportunities if rates remain firm. Handies saw active trading midweek, with replacements pushing rates from 30 x WS185 to a peak of WS212.5 before easing to WS185 ex Sicily; sentiment remains steady despite signs of recalibration and a potentially better-supplied list this week.
Dirty Products
The Handy market in the North experienced a subdued week, with limited enquiry keeping WS240 as the prevailing target for charterers. While relets into programme maintained a lean list, external providers saw fewer opportunities, and early tonnage opening this week may place downward pressure on rates. In the Mediterranean, Handy owners began the week with a lengthy list and prompt positions, but enquiry gradually improved without triggering a significant rate slide. Levels held at 30 x WS230 across multiple fixtures, trimming the list and supporting steady momentum into Friday; a favourable list today could shift sentiment toward owners.
MR activity in the North mirrored the slower Handy pace, with early second-decade openings increasing competition and WS165 achievable for charterers by week’s end. In the Mediterranean, MR rates softened to WS160 after a long list early in the week, though sentiment remains steady to firm and could strengthen with a busier start this week.
Panamax trading between the UKC and the Mediterranean was quiet, with most demand from the US Gulf. TD21 firmed early before stabilizing at WS150, with available positions requiring early enquiry this week to maintain current levels.
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Source: Gibson
