- VLCC activity picked up in the East, offering slight rate improvements; Suezmax and Aframax segments remained subdued.
- West Africa and US Gulf VLCC exports saw limited gains, with owners hoping for stronger demand to lift rates.
- Mediterranean Aframaxes showed signs of recovery, while Suezmaxes softened slightly amid mixed sentiment.
- Dirty products market diverged regionally — Med Handies and MRs firmed on fresh enquiry, while NWE remained under pressure.
Tanker orders for vessels over 25,000 dwt have declined sharply in 2025, reflecting persistent market uncertainty, regulatory pressures, and high newbuilding costs. While overall contracting has slowed, Suezmaxes stand out as an exception with relatively strong ordering activity. Meanwhile, aging fleets and a growing list of sanctioned ships have not yet translated into significant scrapping, largely due to ongoing demand for sanctioned trade routes. According to the latest analysis from Gibson, a surge in demolitions will be necessary to balance the upcoming fleet growth driven by previous years’ heavy ordering.
Crude Tanker Market: Weekly Movements Across Key Regions
The VLCC market in the East showed signs of recovery this week as an increase in cargo volumes helped reduce the position list. While rate improvements were marginal, expectations are rising for stronger momentum in the coming days as charterers wrap up July programs and early August stems emerge. Current rates stand at WS48 for AG/China and WS30 for AG/USG.
In contrast, the Suezmax market in the East remains quiet. Owners are hoping the firmer VLCC market will bring some relief, though current AG/West is at WS45 via Cape/Cape and AG/East rates are under pressure, hovering around WS95. Aframaxes in the AG experienced a flat week with a slight decline in rates as more owners opted to stay in the East. TD8 closed at approximately WS140. West Africa’s VLCC market remained subdued, with limited activity forcing owners to consider other routes.
Aframax rates in the Med remained largely flat despite healthy volumes, with charterers securing Ceyhan and Libya cargoes at WS125–127.5. CPC saw limited activity but reached WS147.5 for Med discharge, with a slight premium for replacement cargoes. A tighter tonnage list toward the week’s end gave owners a chance to regain some lost ground. In the Americas, VLCC exports from the US Gulf showed renewed life. Aframaxes in the US Gulf moved sideways, with TD25 holding at WS140–145. Prompt availability and a gap in upcoming positions could help stabilize rates if next week sees at least moderate inquiry. The North Sea Aframax market remained static, trading near WS120 throughout the week. Relets dominated activity, and with spot fixtures lacking, sub-WS120 levels are expected if demand doesn’t pick up soon.
Dirty Products Market Sees Split Trends Across Regions
The Handy market faced contrasting trends this week across regions. In Northwest Europe, activity remained muted for a second consecutive week, leaving a surplus of modern, approved tonnage with few fixtures to reduce the list. Earlier in the week, 30 x WS250 was fixed, marking a WS7.5 drop, and with no significant pickup in enquiries, levels are expected to soften further toward WS240.
In contrast, the Mediterranean market experienced a notable shift. Although it began the week with a long position list and softening rates down to WS220, midweek saw a surge in enquiries that cleared much of the prompt tonnage. This pushed rates back up to WS230 for standard cross-Med runs by Friday. The top of the list is now tighter, though forward fixing may lead to a quieter start next week.
Panamaxes remained largely inactive in Europe, with UKCM/TA runs awaiting a clearer test, though sentiment is holding around WS115. Across the Atlantic, the post-holiday return of U.S. players brought immediate correction on TD21, where rates dropped from WS190 to WS160. However, activity quickly picked up, clearing tonnage and stabilizing the market. If momentum continues, owners may find room for firming in the days ahead.
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Source: Gibson
