Despite weaker cargo volumes during the first half for both the crude and product tanker markets, we forecast a recovery during the second half and that both markets on average will see a stronger 2024 than 2023, reports Bimco.
Supply Growth
Muted fleet and supply growth in both markets during 2024 is a key enabler for the relatively significant strengthening of the supply/demand balance predicted.
Longer sailing distances due to the rerouting of many ships via the Cape of Good Hope help ensure strong tonne miles and demand growth in 2024 even if cargo volume growth is limited. By 2025, we base our forecasts on the assumption that attacks on ships in the Red Sea may have ended, allowing ships to use normal routings throughout the year.
Though we predict stronger growth in cargo volumes during 2025, the shorter sailing distances caused by the assumed return to normal routines will have a profound impact on tonne miles and therefore demand for ships.
We estimate that average sailing distances in the product tanker market will fall back to 2023 levels, whereas we estimate that the development in the crude tanker market will be less pronounced. Changes in the trade mix as the Atlantic/Pacific imbalance grows may ensure that average sailing distances will not fall back to 2023 levels.
Combined with weak supply growth, we therefore estimate that the crude market’s supply/demand balance will weaken only slightly during 2025.
On the other hand, the product tanker market will see a rapid expansion of supply in 2025 as the many ships recently contracted will begin to be delivered. As such, we forecast a potential for a significant weakening of the product tanker supply/demand balance.
Increase In Freight Rates
It is obvious that should ships not be able to return to normal routines in 2025, demand growth will be stronger, and we would then expect a slight strengthening of the crude tanker market, while the weakening of the product tanker market would be much less pronounced.
During the first half of 2024, both markets have seen year-on-year growth in asset prices and time charter rates. Product tankers have also enjoyed a strong increase in freight rates, as measured by the Baltic Exchange, whereas weakness for both Aframax and Suezmax has kept a lid on the Baltic Exchange index for crude tankers.
As second-hand prices have increased more than newbuilding prices, the ratio between the price for a five-year-old ship and a newbuild has increased to on average 88% and 96% for product and crude tankers respectively.
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Source: Bimco
