Breakwave Advisors’ latest Weekly Outlook highlights a mixed performance across tanker segments, reflecting shifting trade flows, emerging oil surpluses, and evolving rate dynamics heading into Q4 2025.
In the VLCC market, early October brought moderate softening in spot rates, with the Middle East–Asia benchmark settling near 20.73 USD/ton, down 7.9% over the past 30 days. Despite this short-term dip, year-to-date rates remain up by an impressive 130.9%, signaling strong underlying ton-mile demand and regional route rebalancing.
Conversely, the Breakwave Tanker Futures Index rose 3.7% over the past 30 days, standing at 1,658 points, and marking gains of 53.2% year-to-date and 17.5% year-on-year — reflecting a broadly positive sentiment in forward freight markets.
The report’s short-term indicators maintain a neutral outlook on both momentum and sentiment, while the fundamentals remain positive, suggesting stability beneath the surface volatility.
From a supply-demand perspective, world oil demand currently stands at 105.2 million barrels per day, up 1.2% year-on-year, while OPEC supply surged 9.5%, offsetting a marginal 0.7% rise in non-OPEC production. Global crude oil on water has expanded sharply — up 19% year-on-year — signaling robust seaborne activity despite regional disruptions.
Meanwhile, OECD crude stocks declined 3.1%, and U.S. crude exports fell 8.1%, underscoring the uneven regional adjustments in crude flows. The tanker fleet grew modestly by 1.7%, further supporting rate resilience amid stable vessel availability.
In freight markets, Suezmax West Africa–Europe rates dropped 15.7% year-on-year to 16.70 USD/ton, and VLCC Middle East–Asia routes eased 8.8% on a yearly basis. Despite these corrections, Breakwave Advisors notes that long-term fundamentals — including a constrained orderbook and shifting trade routes — continue to underpin a constructive market trajectory.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free Click here to Subscribe!
Source: Breakwave Advisors
