Fearnleys reports in its Week 48 outlook that the tanker market continues to show firm momentum across several segments, with rising activity, shifting position lists, and strengthening earnings shaping the end-November landscape.
Stronger Sentiment Lifts VLCC Earnings
According to Fearnleys, VLCCs recorded another robust week as rates climbed to levels just above WS145 for Middle East Gulf eastbound routes. Most of the early-December loading program in the region is now covered, leaving only a narrow window where cargoes may surface for revision.
The second decade appears slightly more balanced for charterers, yet there is no clear indication of a major market correction. A notable gap still exists between eastern and western demand, especially since vessels serving West Africa and Brazil come from the same overall fleet pool. The current earnings on the main Middle East–Asia benchmark remain far stronger than those on longer-haul alternatives. With the Thanksgiving period slowing trading, the market is likely to pause briefly as participants wait for clearer signals.
Suezmax Market Shows Gradual Softening
Suezmax activity in the Atlantic continues to tighten vessel availability at the front end, but the forward outlook shows a softer tone. More owners appear willing to ballast from the east around the Cape, encouraged by the rate structure and earnings spread between key Atlantic routes.
Recent fixtures indicate small downward adjustments in West Africa loadings, while U.S. Gulf voyages also show pressure as local tonnage crowds the region. Middle East activity has eased as well, supported by a handful of vessels steering toward the Cape. Fearnleys notes that the overall trend points to slow, steady erosion rather than a sharp downturn.
Aframax Rates Hold Firm in North Sea and Mediterranean
In the North Sea, a busy start to the week pushed dates further out and reduced front-end availability. Several vessels have left the region or covered early positions, creating space for firmer sentiment. While activity in the U.S. may ease briefly due to the holiday period, this could lead to a backlog and renewed demand early next week.
The Mediterranean market appears calmer on the surface, though Fearnleys highlights quiet but steady activity below the radar. Owners continue to repeat the last-done levels as December dates progress. The tonnage list remains manageable for the early-month window, though conditions may shift as the second decade approaches.
Updated Rate Snapshot
Dirty Spot Rates (WS, Week 48):
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Middle East Gulf – West: WS 77.5
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Middle East Gulf – Japan: WS 138
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Middle East Gulf – Singapore: WS 142.5
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West Africa – Far East: WS 122.5
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West Africa – U.S. Atlantic Coast: WS 150
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Mediterranean Loadings: WS 182.5
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North Africa – Europe: WS 195
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UK Continent: WS 160
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Caribbean – U.S. Gulf: WS 210
1-Year Time Charter (Modern, USD/day):
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VLCC: $63,500
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Suezmax: $47,000
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Aframax: $34,000
Fearnleys also notes that VLCC activity declined slightly on a week-over-week basis, with 60 fixtures recorded. Vessel availability in the Middle East Gulf sits at 121 units for the next 30 days, showing no major change.
Outlook
Overall tanker sentiment remains constructive as the year draws to a close. Strength in the VLCC segment, steady fundamentals in Aframaxes, and only gradual softening in Suezmaxes suggest a market supported by both demand and fleet-position dynamics. With December programs building and global crude flows shifting, charterers and owners are preparing for an active run-up to the end of the year.
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Source: Fearnleys
