The latest Breakwave Advisors update highlights a decisive shift in the tanker landscape, with mid-November data underscoring firm market strength across major segments. The report points to tightening vessel availability, rising enquiry levels and persistent structural constraints that continue to steer the VLCC market into a period of heightened momentum.
According to the analysis, the VLCC sector has carried its strong trajectory into November, supported by shrinking position lists and renewed activity across key loading regions. Early-month softness in Arabian Gulf demand was quickly replaced by accelerating enquiries, as owners held firmer on rates and prompt tonnage became increasingly scarce. Cross-basin movements between the Atlantic and the Arabian Gulf further tightened supply as repositioning patterns continued to absorb available capacity.
Underlying fundamentals remain broadly constructive. Global crude supply stands above 108 million barrels per day—significantly higher than levels recorded at the start of 2024. Increased output from major producers and expanding Atlantic-to-Asia flows are lifting tonne-mile demand, reinforcing the freight market’s resilience.
One of the strongest structural factors cited in the report is the continued impact of sanctions. Nearly 200 million barrels of crude remain afloat, with a sizable share linked to restricted trades awaiting discharge or diversion. This floating inventory extends voyage durations and limits the number of vessels available for commercial employment, maintaining market tightness heading into December.
On the oil side, momentum has cooled, with upside catalysts remaining limited. The report notes that ongoing supply from key producers continues to temper volatility typically triggered by geopolitical events. Recent disruptions were offset by ample floating storage and crude in transit, leaving overall fundamentals relatively unchanged. With transportation fuel demand showing little growth and China absorbing excess barrels at a slower pace, the broader oil outlook remains steady.
Longer-term observations in the update highlight a tanker market emerging from a prolonged period of uneven rates. A historically low orderbook, combined with shifting trade patterns, is contributing to increased volatility in spot markets. These structural dynamics—alongside ongoing geopolitical complexity—continue to define the medium- to long-term environment for tanker freight performance.
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
