VLCC
A week that has flattered to deceive. The fundamentals were there for a jump in rates – a tight list, strong sentiment, a reawakening Venezuela – but a combination of levelheaded chartering and the tactic of working in the shadows has enabled rates to stay pretty stagnant with perhaps a small, gentle uptick. In the MEG, we saw reports of a Unipec TD3C run at WS 69, but so far proved unfounded. Lower numbers have been agreed on better freighting voyages to Vietnam, or vessels on the cusp of 15 years. December cargo count has crept up to 75+, so we well over halfway, but likely unobserved deals have skewed this total lower than what is perhaps correct.
A number of ships reported fixing ex Venezuela have assisted a lackluster USG market. One deal reported Venezuela/China at USD 11m, so a USD 1m premium on the USG. How long this premium lasts is a debate as more owners willing the call. West Africa quieter on the whole but the list of natural vessels in the Atlantic is tight, and getting tighter.
Opec+ meeting tomorrow and oil prices moving upwards. Someone spooked perhaps, but any increased cut seems unlikely, as African producers and the UAE keen to increase. Let’s see tomorrow.
Suezmax
The Eastern Suezmax market has been extremely quiet this week and would have been deemed dead, without a pulse, had it not been for a trickle of short haul MEG/India enquiry and the odd fuel stem. South East Asia and Red Sea are also conspicuously quiet, which says more about the underlying Afra market than anything else. MEG/China will trade WS 110-112.5 on modern and TD23 likely to dip under WS 70 if it remains quiet.
In the Atlantic, it’s difficult to pinpoint without specifics, but having spoken to multiple owners with USG exposure, there is possibly more going on off market than meets the eye which will act as a support mechanism, not just to this region, but to the wider Atlantic in general. Hence, TD20 will hold minimum high WS 90’s with owners looking to nudge rates upwards towards the WS 100 mark.
Aframax
NORTH
In the North Sea, we have seen very limited activity for early December and rates have fallen as a result. Fixing window now into the 5-10 December window. After the quiet start to December fixing the balance of the month beyond the 10th does look like it should be more active with a relatively large North Sea program.
MEDITERRANEAN
Activity this week has helped to clear the way for some firming looking forward on the Mediterranean Afras with owner’s keen to quickly close the gap up to the Suezmax. Black Sea fixing mid-month with the window X-Mediterranean slightly earlier off end/early first decade dates; with a predicted increase in supply through December.
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Source : Fearn pulse
