Import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports are headed for a steep drop in November and December as retailers finish stocking up for the holiday season and uncertainty over tariffs continues to cloud the outlook, reports gCaptain.
According to the latest report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, volumes are forecast at around 1.85 million TEUs (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units) in November — down about 14.4 % year-over-year — and further slipping to 1.75 million TEUs in December, a 17.9 % drop and the slowest monthly rate since March 2023.
U.S. imports sink to 3-year low
Retailers appear to have frontloaded their shipments earlier in the year in anticipation of tariff hikes and labour disruptions, leaving less inbound cargo to arrive late in the year. Meanwhile, shifting trade policy is adding to importers’ caution. Recent changes include a reduction in a 20 % “fentanyl” tariff on China to 10 % and postponements of planned “reciprocal” tariff increases. At the same time, a 10 % reciprocal tariff under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act remains in place, with the legal basis still subject to Supreme Court review.
In October, U.S. container imports reportedly reached approximately 2.31 million TEUs — a rare month-on-month decline, noted as only the second October in the past decade to experience such a drop. Imports from China rose slightly month-on-month, but were down about 16.3 % year-over-year. Key Chinese export categories such as toys, sporting goods, furniture and electrical machinery all contracted sharply compared to the previous year – signalling broader caution among U.S. importers.
The first half of 2025 saw 12.53 million TEUs, up 3.7 % from the same period in 2024. However, the full-year forecast is 24.9 million TEUs, down 2.3 % from 2024’s total of 25.5 million. Looking ahead, the outlook remains challenging: January 2026 is forecast at 1.98 million TEUs (down 11.1 %), February at 1.85 million (down 9 %), and March at 1.79 million (down 16.7 %).
These figures reflect a market in transition. The era of high volume “frontloading” driven by tariff fears appears to be winding down, while real-time volatility in trade policy continues to weigh on importer confidence. For ports, carriers and supply-chain managers, these signals point to a quieter inbound calendar ahead — and a need to adapt to a lower-volume, higher-uncertainty operating environment.
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Source: gCaptain
