Global shipping is facing a wave of volatility as trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts disrupt established routes and trade patterns, according to a recent report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), reports Reuters.
UNCTAD has downgraded its maritime trade forecast for 2025, anticipating only about 0.5% growth in overall shipping volumes, while containerized trade may grow at about 1.4%. Weak industrial output in major economies and soft Chinese demand for bulk commodities further weigh on the outlook.
Key stressors include new tariffs that ripple through supply chains, reroutings driven by conflicts in the Black Sea and Red Sea regions, and instability around chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. In the latest years, the average length of trade routes has lengthened—an indicator of strategic shifts in shipping corridors.
UNCTAD warns that the shipping sector must rethink its operations in a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment, saying that “distance is no longer geography; it is geoeconomics.” The agency foresees recovery in the second half of the decade, with 2026–2030 growth rates of ~2% annually for seaborne trade and ~2.3% for container trade.
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Source: Reuters
