- Asia-North Europe market share set to ebb and flow between the alliances.
- The 2M partners reduced capacity by over 50% and in the next 2 months will see year-on year-capacity reduced by 24%.
- The Ocean Alliance reduced capacity by around 45% and will reduce capacity by a far modest 14%-18%.
- THE Alliance reduced capacity by 29% in week five and by 38% in week six and offerings will be cut back by 24%-27%.
- Currently 2M deploys 41% of headhaul capacity, with the Ocean Alliance providing 38% and THE Alliance the remaining 21%.
- Next month 2M will maintain a 41% market share, with Ocean Alliance moving to 40% and THE Alliance reduced to 19%.
Evidence reveals how the three main container shipping alliances on the Asia-North Europe trade are to manage capacity for the rest of the year, says an article published in The LoadStar.
Drastic capacity cuts
According to new data from SeaIntelligence today, the 2M and Ocean alliances had been quick early in the year to make drastic capacity cuts in weeks five and six.
2M partners
The 2M partners reduced capacity by over 50%, compared with that week in 2019.
Ocean Alliance
The Ocean Alliance reduced capacity by around 45%, year on year.
THE Alliance
THE Alliance reduced capacity by 29% in week five and by 38% in week six, but has since maintained a relatively stable capacity offering.
Capacity reduction in next two months
2M partners
The 2M partners will see year-on year-capacity reduced by 24%.
THE Alliance
THE Alliance’s offering will be cut back by 24%-27%.
The Ocean Alliance
The Ocean Alliance will reduce capacity by a far modest 14%-18%.
According to SeaIntelligence CEO Alan Murphy, The Ocean Alliance’s cumulative capacity reductions by week 40 are the lowest of the three alliances, and by quite some margin.
“This is a trend we also see on the Asia-North America east coast and Asia-Mediterranean trades.”
“As we have noted on several occasions, there is no logical basis to suggest that the Ocean Alliance would be impacted differently. Which makes these developments a bit curious, especially since this is not a trend that we saw in 2019 either.”
Current schedules and market share changes
According to eeSea data, this will also result in a change in market share on the trade:
Current market share
Currently 2M deploys 41% of headhaul capacity, with the Ocean Alliance providing 38% and THE Alliance the remaining 21%.
Next month
Next month that will change, with 2M maintaining a 41% market share, with Ocean Alliance moving to 40% and THE Alliance reduced to 19%.
September forecast
In September, the Ocean Alliance according to current schedules is set to operate 39% of capacity, with 2M reduced to a 36% market share and THE Alliance on 25%.
2M partners to lead vessel-sharing agreement
However, if 2M partners reinstate the AE2/Swan in October, as originally planned, then the 2M partners will once more be the leading vessel-sharing agreement, with 44% of operated capacity.
Recent blank sailings
According to SeaIntelligence, last week, just two further Asia-North Europe blank sailings were announced by carriers.
Mr Murphy said that the fewer new blank sailings does not mean demand is back to normal from the 15.9% year on year drop in April and 11.4% in May.
The carriers seem to believe their current blank sailings programme is adequate – aggressive even, considering that a host of blank sailings have been reinstated in recent weeks.
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Source: The LoadStar
