The final Dry Market Monitor of the year highlights tonne-day demand growth as a critical leading indicator for freight market direction heading into the start of next year. With dry bulk tonne-days reaching record levels in 2025, the data underscores the growing importance of distance-driven demand particularly long-haul iron ore trades in sustaining vessel utilisation. While some segments weaken toward year-end, Capesize markets are showing resilience, offering early signals of market momentum carrying into the new year.
Iron Ore and Long-Haul Trades Drive Record Tonne-Day Growth
Dry bulk tonne-days reached historic highs in 2025, rising around 4% year-on-year and nearly 9% compared with 2023. This expansion has been overwhelmingly driven by iron ore, which alone contributed an estimated 199 million additional tonne-days. Long-haul exports from the Atlantic basin to China especially Brazil–China and South Africa–China routes have been central in supporting Capesize demand and freight stability.
Despite weak macroeconomic signals and subdued steel sector sentiment, Chinese iron ore imports have remained resilient. Freight trends ahead of Christmas further reinforced this strength, with Capesize rates on Brazil–China routes peaking near $26/ton before stabilising around $24/ton. This contained pullback suggests underlying demand support rather than a broader market correction.
Bauxite has also emerged as a secondary growth driver, particularly within the Capesize segment, as longer sourcing distances and rising Chinese alumina demand increase vessel utilisation. While a temporary slowdown is expected around the Chinese New Year, historical patterns suggest a swift rebound as deferred cargoes re-enter the system.
Weaker Momentum in Coal, Panamax and Agricultural Segments
In contrast, tonne-day growth for coal and agricultural trades has been revised downward toward year-end. Coal shipments to the Far East underperformed earlier in the year, although a seasonal rebound in the fourth quarter lifted coal tonne-days to around 90 million. This recovery aligns with winter demand patterns but remains weaker than in previous years, indicating a more muted seasonal effect.
Panamax freight markets have experienced a sharper downturn. Quarter-on-quarter declines were pronounced across key routes, including Indonesia–China, Indonesia–India, East Australia–China, and US Gulf–China. These steep corrections confirm that earlier monthly weakness has evolved into a deeper momentum slowdown, leaving the Panamax sector entering the new year from a fragile base.
Agricultural trades continued their downward trend, driven largely by China’s push for agri self-sufficiency. Soybean imports are estimated to decline by around one million tonnes year-on-year for the 2025–26 crop season, reducing long-haul demand and vessel-day generation. As a result, Supramax Atlantic routes remain under sustained pressure, limiting upside potential in early Q1.
As the year closes, dry bulk demand remains firmly anchored in iron ore-driven tonne-day growth, with Capesize markets benefiting from long-haul trade resilience. Meanwhile, coal and agricultural segments contribute more modestly, and Panamax and Supramax markets face continued pressure. Looking ahead, freight market performance will remain closely tied to Chinese policy direction, geopolitical risks, and broader macroeconomic developments. Current signals suggest Capesize freight momentum may extend into the new year, while other segments may require supply-side tightening or demand recovery to regain strength.
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Source: AJOT
