- Blank sailings on East-West trade routes are rising, with 95 cancellations between January and mid-February, representing 13% of scheduled sailings.
- Transpacific Eastbound trade accounts for 57% of cancellations, with rates surging 19% since late December due to pre-Lunar New Year demand.
- Market dynamics are shifting as alliances transition services, potentially leading to schedule disruptions and fluctuating freight rates.
The global shipping industry continues to grapple with increasing blank sailings, shifting freight rates, and capacity adjustments. Drewry’s latest Cancelled Sailings Tracker sheds light on how these trends are shaping key East-West trade lanes and provides insights into what lies ahead for the shipping market.
Rising Blank Sailings Across East-West Routes
Between January 13 and February 16, 95 sailings are canceled across Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe & Med trade lanes, reflecting a 13% cancellation rate.
Transpacific Eastbound trade leads the pack with 57% of cancellations, followed by Transatlantic Westbound (23%) and Asia-North Europe & Med (20%).
Capacity Growth Balances Rising Blank Sailings
While cancellations are set to increase from 95 in January to 108 in February, effective capacity on East-West routes is projected to grow by 13% MoM.
Weekly scheduled sailings rose by 2% on Transpacific Eastbound routes and 27% on Asia-North Europe & Med trade. It partially offset the rise in cancellations.
Freight Rate Trends
Ocean freight rates are fluctuating, with the Drewry WCI Composite Index rising 2% WoW to $3,986 per 40ft container on January 9.
Transpacific rates have surged 19% since late December due to GRIs, pre-Lunar New Year demand, and tariff frontloading. Asia-Europe/Med and Transatlantic rates have dropped by 6% and 1%, respectively.
Impact of Alliance Transitions
As alliances shift to new services, blank sailings may exceed forecasts. It would lead to schedule disruptions and temporary instability in the market.
Post-Lunar New Year slack season, labor dispute resolution in the US, and anticipated rate cuts could further shape market dynamics.
Market Outlook and Challenges
The post-Lunar New Year slack season may bring down rates further. Temporary slowdowns and declines are expected during alliance transitions.
Shipping companies must navigate these shifts to stabilize operations and adapt to changing demand patterns.
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Source: Drewry
