According to an article published in Bloomberg, the frenzied LNG buying seen ahead of higher seasonal demand is expanding global supply and will curb price gains. It’s bargain time in the liquefied natural gas market.
Snapping Up Cargoes?
After prices plunged to their lowest on record for this time of year, traders say buyers from Japan to India have started to snap up cargoes in anticipation of a pickup in winter demand. Procurement for the colder season is only expected to intensify over what’s left of the summer.
“We have likely reached bottom,” Sanford C. Bernstein & Co analysts including Neil Beveridge said in a report.
Dented Demand Pushing for Storage?
The rout can be traced back to last winter, when mild weather dented demand for heating in large parts of the northern hemisphere. To make matters worse for producers, which are adding supply at a record pace, consumption for cooling in the past few months wasn’t very strong either. A market in contango is also pushing some traders to consider storing gas on tankers to sell later at a higher price, a practice that last year began later in autumn.
Another sign that demand is picking up can be spotted in the shipping market. The cost of hiring a tanker on a spot basis East of Suez is at the highest since January. Oystein M Kalleklev, chief executive officer of vessel owner Flex LNG Ltd., expects the LNG market to become “increasingly tight” in the second half of the year, he said Tuesday on an earnings call.
Gaps Showing?
Cargoes for early September delivery to North Asia were bought between high-$3 to low-$4 per million British thermal units, while October shipments are currently priced around the mid-$4 level, according to traders.
In Europe, where inventories are already above last year’s high point, traders see the gap of as much as $1.50 per million Btu between September and the fourth-quarter contract as an opportunity to sell the fuel later.
Tankers Idling, Off the Port
One tanker, Marshal Vasilevskiy, which loaded at Rotterdam last weekend, doesn’t appear to have a destination yet and is idling off the port, ship-tracking data on Bloomberg show. Also, at least three BP Plc vessels appear to be idling for longer than usual, according to the data.
Traders Floating Cargoes?
S&P Global Platts defines floating storage as any laden trip that takes 1.75 times the standard length of time to reach its destination. The company, which provides commodity price assessments and market analysis, said traders will probably float cargoes for delivery in November and December, boosting prices during autumn in the European market.
“Even if charter rates triple from current levels, marginal LNG spot supply is still profitable selling into November or December,” Platts said in a report. “We expect this dynamic to limit European regasification rates and push LNG storage to its limits in October.”
Uptick Normal But Lower Than Last Year
While an uptick in prices at this time of year is normal, prices are still less than half of where they were at the same time last year.
Nick Boyes, a senior gas and LNG analyst at Swiss utility Axpo Group, doesn’t see much upside for prices until the first quarter. Only then will the possibility of cold weather in northeast Asia offer some bullish sentiment along with higher nuclear maintenance.
“Some small relief from an oversupplied market may appear from floating storage, or slow sailing reloads from northwest Europe, to take advantage of the steep contango in LNG prices,” he said.
New Supply Curbing Gains
New supply from plants in the U.S. to Australia will also likely curb any bigger gains.
- A record 35 million tons of LNG capacity will be added globally next year, according to Bernstein.
- The U.S. alone will add about 17 million tons of capacity in the next two quarters, said Leslie Palti-Guzman, president and co-founder of GasVista LLC, an energy consultant in New York.
All the new supply, coupled with demand at the mercy of deteriorating U.S.-China trade relations, is sending a bearish signal.
“The market should question the forward winter LNG curve price,” she said.
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Source: Bloomberg
