- Demand Turns Negative as Market Weakens Further.
- Carriers Add Capacity Despite Falling Utilisation.
- Vessel Utilisation Projected to Drop Below Pre-Pandemic Levels.
Spot rates for shipping from Rotterdam to New York have hit an all-time low, aside from a significant drop we saw in late 2023. Demand has taken a hit, showing a year-on-year decline in September 2025, reports Sea Intelligence.
Rising Capacity May Destabilise Market
Even with demand dropping, shipping companies are gearing up to increase their capacity over the next 12 weeks. This could lead to an even bigger imbalance, pushing utilisation rates down to historic lows.
Utilization and Rate Outlook
Forecasts based on both 0% and 5% demand growth scenarios indicate that vessel utilisation is set to fall well below what we experienced before the pandemic. Given the strong link, about 80%, between utilisation and spot rates, we can expect a significant drop in rates soon.
Capacity Cuts Expected
While rates are not likely to go negative, the market outlook suggests that carriers may soon start cancelling sailings and pulling back on capacity to help restore some balance.
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Source: Sea Intelligence
