- Transpacific rates show signs of peaking, with spot rates to the US West Coast rising 41% in early June before leveling off as more capacity enters the market.
- Capacity from the Far East to the US West Coast jumped 28% since mid-May, easing upward pressure on freight rates caused by tariff-driven demand surges.
- Red Sea disruptions continue to impact global trade, pushing spot rates from the Far East to North Europe up 62% and to the US East Coast up 165% since December 2023.
Xeneta’s latest market update for the week ending 12 June 2025 reveals evolving trends in ocean container shipping, driven by a complex mix of geopolitical instability, changing capacity dynamics, and trade policy impacts. Spot rates on key global routes continue to shift, with notable developments in Transpacific trade lanes and ongoing challenges in the Red Sea region.
Complex mix of geopolitical instability
Transpacific freight rates are showing signs of peaking, particularly on the Far East to US West Coast route. Average spot rates for this trade lane reached USD 5,345 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), while the mid-high market rate climbed to USD 6,100. For the Far East to US East Coast, average spot rates stood at USD 6,568, with the upper range reaching USD 7,213. Despite these elevated levels, Xeneta highlights that the price gap between lower and higher market tiers is narrowing—mid-low spot rates to the West Coast rose 41% from early June to USD 5,100, shrinking the previous USD 2,506 spread to just USD 1,000. This suggests that the steep spot rate climb is beginning to lose momentum.
Contributing to this deceleration is a significant increase in available shipping capacity. Since mid-May, capacity from the Far East to the US West Coast has increased by 28%, reflecting efforts by carriers to meet the demand surge that was initially triggered by tariff-related cargo rushes. According to Xeneta’s Chief Analyst, Peter Sand, the current rate levels are likely to peak in June before facing downward pressure later in the month. The fading fear and uncertainty that initially drove rates up are now giving way to more stabilized market behavior.
Meanwhile, Red Sea disruptions remain a major factor influencing long-haul rates. Due to continued regional instability, vessels are avoiding the Suez Canal and rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. As a result, spot rates from the Far East to North Europe have increased 62% since December 2023, and rates to the US East Coast have surged by 165%. These elevated figures highlight the long-term cost implications of extended transit times and geopolitical detours.
Xeneta’s data emphasizes the challenges facing both shippers and carriers. Shippers should act quickly to capitalize on currently available capacity before rates soften, while carriers must prepare for narrowing margins as supply and demand rebalance. Additionally, continued tensions in the Red Sea and the lingering effects of protectionist trade policies will likely sustain volatility in the months ahead.
As the shipping industry enters the second half of June, market watchers will closely monitor whether this anticipated spot rate plateau holds or gives way to broader corrections. With trade dynamics shifting rapidly, the ability to adapt to new supply chain realities remains critical for all stakeholders.
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Source: Xeneta
