- Some energy stances are likely positive for U.S. oil but could lead to international policy challenges.
- The approach to Russia and Iran could shift tanker demand depending on sanctions or alliances.
- Global markets may see volatility, especially if trade issues are re-escalated with China.
A potentially supportive stance for the U.S. oil sector can be expected, which might encourage tanker shipping. However, changes in domestic policies alone may not suffice to impact global oil output significantly, reports Gibson.
Potential Tanker Market Shift
A bold campaign claim to resolve the Ukraine war could impact tankers depending on how U.S. support for Ukraine changes.
A potential peace deal or lifted sanctions could reduce the recent demand for non-Russian oil in Europe, potentially displacing current trade patterns.
Russia’s Role
Different approaches could vary from easing sanctions, which might reintroduce Russian diesel to European markets, to increasing pressure on Russia.
Either path presents varying risks and potential benefits for tanker routes, particularly in Europe.
Pressure on Russia
As an increase in sanctions, global buyers like India may shift to US, West African, or Middle Eastern oil.
This could reduce reliance on “dark fleet” tankers and increase mainstream market demand, especially with OPEC cooperation.
The Iran Factor in Middle East Strategy
Stricter sanctions on Iran could limit oil flow from sanctioned vessels, favoring legitimate tankers.
Yet, the approach to Iran and broader Middle East relations may impact oil prices and regional strategy amid geopolitical tensions.
Although Venezuela may face renewed scrutiny, its impact on global tanker routes remains minor in comparison to major oil players.
Oil Prices Dip
The stance and “drill, baby, drill” approach hints at favorable policies for U.S. hydrocarbon sectors, though expanding production might prove challenging.
Oil prices dipped post-election, influenced by dollar strength and energy policy expectations.
China Trade Tensions and Potential Oil Demand Decline
A renewed trade war with China could lead to reduced demand in China, especially in sectors reliant on petrochemicals like LPG and ethane.
Tariffs could further suppress China’s oil imports.
Regional Tanker Trends
- U.S. Gulf/Latin America: Rates remain under pressure with high tonnage. Eastern arrivals seek an end-of-year surge.
- Mediterranean: A steady market with gradual rate stability and activity, especially for Libya-Eastern runs.
- North Sea: Ballaster presence keeps freight steady; no immediate rate hike expected.
With moderate activity across regions, Aframax, Suezmax, and VLCC rates remain competitive due to weak tonnage levels. An uptick is possible as December stems emerge.
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Source: Gibson
