- Iran-Israel conflict prompts UKMTO to raise maritime threat level to “SIGNIFICANT.”
- Strait of Hormuz sees notable vessel traffic decline as shipping risks rise.
- Proxy threats from Houthi rebels and potential Red Sea disruption remain high.
As of mid‑June 2025, ongoing hostilities between Iran and Israel have sharply increased maritime security risks along key trade routes in the Middle East.
Dryad Global’s latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA) outlines a volatile situation marked by military escalation, electronic interference, and elevated threats to commercial shipping in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and the Northern Arabian Sea.
Regional Security Threats Escalate
On June 14, Iran issued a warning that it would retaliate against U.S., U.K., or French forces intervening in its conflict with Israel. This led to evacuations of Western personnel from Iraq and withdrawals from Bahrain and Kuwait—clear indications that the situation could rapidly spiral. Consequently, maritime authorities JMIC and UKMTO upgraded threat levels to SIGNIFICANT, citing the risks of drone and missile strikes, GPS jamming, AIS spoofing, and swarm attacks by fast IRGC Navy boats near Bandar Abbas.
Shipping Patterns and Risk Indicators
Although the Strait of Hormuz remains navigable, traffic has declined significantly—from 147 cargo vessels on June 9 to just 111 by June 15—as major stakeholders opt for caution. No confirmed vessel attacks have occurred yet, but the threat matrix includes: drone or missile strikes, floating mines, IRGC fast-craft swarms, and opportunistic seizures—especially of vessels linked to Western nations in areas with AIS disruptions north of Dubai and Sharjah.
While Iran’s direct military reach may be limited, proxy actors such as Yemen’s Houthi rebels pose serious secondary risks. Having already targeted over 55 vessels since November 2023, these actors could extend disruptive activity to chokepoints like Bab el‑Mandeb, especially if nuclear negotiations collapse or further Israeli strikes ensue.
Guidance for Commercial Operators
Dryad Global issues comprehensive safety recommendations for ship operators:
- Keep AIS enabled to reduce misidentification and collisions.
- Use radar, gyro-compass, and visual fixes to counter GPS/AIS jamming.
- Utilize MSTC-ME convoy routes under coalition naval supervision.
- Complete pre‑voyage risk assessments, especially for Western-linked vessels.
- Register voyages with UKMTO and NAVCENT NCAGS in the Indian Ocean reporting zone.
- Maintain constant communication with maritime authorities and reporting centers.
- Prepare crew safety protocols and contingency plans for rerouting and emergencies.
- Maintain vigilant watches for drones, fast craft, and floating mines.
This situation exemplifies how regional conflicts can disrupt global shipping channels. Just as Houthi activity destabilized the Red Sea in 2023–24, Iranian involvement in Gulf tensions could spread broader maritime instability. Dryad Global continues to track developments and offer intelligence-led support to shipping operators navigating this increasingly uncertain environment.
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Source: Dryad Global
