The ten largest U.S. ports recorded a 6.6% year-over-year decrease in inbound container volume in September, marking a sharp reversal from earlier months and signaling the beginning of what industry analyst John McCown predicts will be “consistent and more pronounced” declines through 2026, reports gCaptain.
The September drop follows modest increases of 0.2% in August and 3.2% in July, both periods that McCown says were “significantly buoyed by frontloading to get goods in prior to additional tariffs going into effect.” Prior to those temporary gains, ports saw decreases of 8.3% in June and 6.6% in May.
McCown warns that “inbound volume into the U.S. will show consistent and more pronounced year over year declines well into next year in the absence of any changes to the current tariffs.”
The revised reciprocal tariffs that took effect on August 7 included a critical exception for goods already in transit, which temporarily cushioned the blow. “The new tariffs did not apply to containers that were loaded on vessels at their last foreign port of call before August 7, provided they entered the U.S. before October 5,” McCown explains.This grace period meant most August arrivals and some September shipments, particularly on long Asia-to-East Coast routes, avoided the new levies.
Supply Chain Restructuring Accelerates
McCown observes that adjustments to global supply chains are happening faster than anticipated. “If a manufacturing site wasn’t deemed attractive because it had 10% higher costs, it now looks attractive if it can save 25% tariffs,” he notes. McCown adds that manufacturers in countries facing high U.S. tariffs “may now find other markets without tariffs relatively more attractive.”
This shift is already evident in global data. While U.S. container volume declines, worldwide container volume set records for two consecutive months through August.Container exports from the Far East in August were up 4.6% year-over-year, with “container imports to Africa, Mideast/India and Europe have all increased sharply and in uptrends while U.S. volume is languishing and declining,” according to McCown.
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Source: gCaptain
