- U.S. Container Demand Weakens Despite Record Holiday Sales.
- Global Port Tracker Flags Prolonged Import Slowdown.
- Cargo Volumes at U.S. Ports Set for Further Declines in 2026.
It looks like we’re in for a rough ride with import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports, as they’re expected to keep declining through 2026. This trend is largely due to ongoing tariff fluctuations and changes in trade policy, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. The demand for container shipping into the U.S. took a significant hit in the fourth quarter of 2025 and is likely to stay under pressure as we head into early 2026, reports gCaptain.
Import Declines Expected to Persist
“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”
Port Volumes Take a Dive Late in 2025
The report reveals that U.S. ports managed to handle 2.07 million TEU in October, which is a drop of 7.9% compared to the same time last year. And it seems like the slowdown is set to worsen:
- November: 1.91 million TEU (–11.6%)
- December: 1.86 million TEU (–12.7%)
December is shaping up to be the slowest month since June 2023, especially after a peak in July of 2.39 million TEU. While the end of the year typically sees a dip in activity, the extent of this decline is a result of retailers frontloading their imports earlier in the year due to tariff worries and concerns about potential labour disruptions in late 2024.
Frontloading Creates a Cargo Gap
Retailers ramped up their imports earlier in 2025 to dodge tariff impacts, which left them with well-stocked inventories for the holiday season. However, this strategy has led to a lull in cargo demand afterwards.
“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “Regardless of what develops, retailers will adjust their supply chains accordingly and strive to ensure that consumers have affordable options when they shop.”
Trade Policy Still Up in the Air
The situation with tariffs remains unpredictable. While some tariffs on food products have recently been lowered, other measures under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are facing a Supreme Court challenge. Even if these tariffs are overturned, analysts warn that other trade authorities might step in to reinstate them, keeping importers and shipping lines in a state of uncertainty.
2025 Outlook Shows Improvement, but 2026 Remains Tough
For the full year of 2025, imports are projected to reach 25.2 million TEU, which is a slight decrease of 1.4% from 2024. This is actually better than earlier forecasts that predicted a much steeper drop. However, the outlook for early 2026 still looks weak:
- January: 2.0 million TEU (–10.3%)
- February: 1.86 million TEU (–8.5%)
- March: 1.79 million TEU (–16.8%)
- April: 1.97 million TEU (–10.9%)
Consumer Demand Stays Strong Despite Import Trends
Even with challenges in shipping, the NRF is predicting record holiday sales that will surpass $1 trillion, marking an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% compared to last year. The stark difference between robust consumer demand and declining import volumes showcases how retailers are effectively managing to frontload cargo and navigate tariff impacts, at least for now.
Market Implications
Experts agree that tariff policy will continue to be the main factor influencing U.S. container flows through 2026. As demand eases on both coasts, the container shipping markets are likely to keep adapting to lower volumes and growing uncertainty.
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Source: gCaptain
