- U.S. seaborne grain shipments rose 9% year-over-year in H1 2025, driven by stronger maize exports.
- Despite a steep drop in exports to China due to higher tariffs, the U.S. redirected cargoes to Asia, Latin America, and the Mediterranean.
- Panamax and handysize vessels saw increased tonne-mile demand, while supramax demand declined due to vessel competition.
- Upcoming U.S. harvests may increase shipments, although soya bean and sorghum exports face market challenges.
In the first half of 2025, U.S. seaborne grain shipments rose by 9% year-over-year, largely supported by higher maize exports. This growth came despite a sharp decline in trade with China, following the introduction of increased tariffs in March. The U.S. successfully redirected much of its grain cargo to alternative markets across Asia, Latin America, and the Mediterranean. However, overall tonne-mile demand declined due to shorter sailing distances to these new destinations. These developments were highlighted in a recent update from BIMCO.
Grain Shipments Shift Vessel Demand Amid Seasonal Outlook
As of mid-2025, nearly half of U.S. grain exports have been moved by Panamax vessels, accounting for 46% of shipments, followed by 32% on supramax and 22% on handysize ships. While tonne-mile demand has increased for both panamax and handysize segments due to rising cargo volumes, the supramax segment experienced a sharp 33% year-over-year drop. This decline was driven by intensified competition from Panamax vessels, particularly in major markets like Japan and China.
Looking ahead, the U.S. is approaching its grain harvesting season. According to projections from the United States Department of Agriculture, maize production is expected to increase by 6%, while wheat and soybean output may see slight reductions. As a result, grain shipment volumes are expected to increase seasonally in the coming months. However, challenges remain in securing new markets for soya beans and sorghum, especially as China continues to prefer imports from Brazil, which is expanding its production base.
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Source: BIMCO
