U.S. Imports Decline as Chinese Vessel Fees Disrupt Supply Chain

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Mfame Editor
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15

  • U.S. container ports expect strong import growth through spring 2025, followed by a summer decline.

  • Proposed fees on Chinese-built vessels may reshape port rotations and increase shipping costs.

  • Retailers are rushing imports ahead of rising tariffs, but long-term supply chain shifts remain challenging.

Major U.S. container ports are preparing for shifts in cargo volumes in 2025, with imports projected to remain strong through spring before experiencing their first year-over-year decline since September 2023.

According to the latest gCaptain report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, January imports reached 2.22 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), marking a 4.4% increase from December and a 13.4% year-over-year rise.

Projections for upcoming months:

  • March 2025: 2.14 million TEUs (+10.8% YoY)
  • April 2025: 2.13 million TEUs (+5.7% YoY)
  • May 2025: 2.14 million TEUs (+2.8% YoY)

However, by summer 2025, volume is expected to decline:

  • June 2025: 3.2% drop
  • July 2025: 13.9% decline to 1.99 million TEUs, the lowest since March 2024

Potential Fees on Chinese-Built Vessels and Impact on Port Calls

A proposed U.S. Trade Representative policy could impose fees ranging from $1 million to $1.5 million each time a Chinese-built vessel docks at a U.S. port, affecting a significant portion of the global container fleet.

“Given that a significant portion of the global container fleet has been built in China, this means that there will be further costs that will be passed on to cargo owners and ultimately the consumer,” warns Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett.

This move could reshape port rotations as carriers consolidate calls at major ports, deploy larger vessels, and marginalize smaller ports.

“Ports accommodated the surge in import volume in the final quarter of 2024 without major issues, but this will place additional pressure on the supply chain while also harming the nation’s smaller ports,” noted Hackett.

Tariff Uncertainty and Retailer Response

Retailers are accelerating shipments to avoid rising tariffs and supply chain disruptions.

“Retailers are continuing to bring as much merchandise into the country ahead of rising tariffs as possible,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold.

Gold highlighted specific concerns:

  • Tariffs on Chinese goods have doubled from 10% to 20%, with uncertainty about reciprocal tariffs starting in April 2025.
  • Tariffs on Canada and Mexico won’t directly impact port volumes since most trade moves via truck or rail.
  • Supply chain diversification is in progress, but change takes time.

Gold also emphasized consumer impact:
“Tariffs are taxes on imports ultimately paid by consumers, not foreign countries, and American families will pay more as long as they are in place.”

Long-Term Industry Outlook and Adjustments

Despite these challenges, the first half of 2025 is projected to reach 12.78 million TEUs, marking a 5.7% increase from the previous year.

This follows a strong 2024 performance, with total imports reaching 25.5 million TEUs, up 14.7% from 2023, nearing the pandemic-era record of 25.8 million TEUs (2021).

As the maritime industry faces these evolving challenges, the potential restructuring of vessel deployments and port calls is expected to reshape the U.S. shipping landscape in the coming months.

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Source: gCaptain