U.S. Port Imports To See Brief Rebound Before Tariffs Trigger New Decline

After a sharp drop in late spring, import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to briefly recover this July—before declining again due to newly introduced tariffs, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

The report highlights the volatility of international trade flows as U.S. retailers scramble to adjust to tariff-related policy shifts.

Import Volumes Reflect Supply Chain Instability

U.S. ports handled 1.95 million TEUs in May, marking an 11.8% decline from April and a 6.4% drop year-over-year—the first such annual decrease since September 2023. Retailers are attempting to frontload goods in anticipation of upcoming tariffs, hoping to avoid cost spikes during the crucial holiday season.

The forecast for July anticipates a brief uptick to 2.36 million TEUs, a 2.1% year-over-year rise, but this is expected to be short-lived.

Tariff Uncertainty Clouding Long-Term Outlook

President Trump’s recent executive order delaying “reciprocal” tariffs until August 1, coupled with announcements of up to 40% tariffs on imports from over a dozen countries, has created market confusion. Retailers and supply chain operators are struggling to adapt amid the uncertainty, with additional concern over the status of China tariffs, despite a newly signed deal.

Economist Ben Hackett warned that such erratic policy shifts undermine supply chain performance, stating,“a flurry of tariff-related announcements from the Trump administration has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty,” adding that “the global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable.”

From August to November, import volumes are expected to decline significantly—down 10.4% in August and 21.3% by November.

The U.S. maritime import sector faces a turbulent second half of 2025, shaped by short-term rebounds and long-term contraction due to tariff impacts. While the first half of the year may end with a 4.5% growth in TEU volumes compared to 2024, that figure remains lower than earlier forecasts, highlighting the economic strain of policy unpredictability. Retailers and logistics providers must brace for a challenging season ahead.