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The U.S. Treasury’s revocation of Chevron’s Venezuela license in March 2025 has caused a significant halt in Venezuelan crude exports to the U.S.
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Venezuela’s oil exports, previously dominated by Chevron, have sharply declined, with no shipments recorded as of May 2, 2025.
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While Aframax freight activity surged earlier, tanker markets now face a mixed outlook with declining rates and varying vessel availability.
In March 2025, the U.S. Treasury revoked Chevron’s special license to operate in Venezuela due to the Maduro regime’s failure to meet electoral commitments. This decision has forced Chevron to fully wind down its Venezuelan operations by May 27, ending a crucial channel for Venezuelan crude exports to the U.S. The move effectively dismantles the last remaining legal trade route for Venezuelan oil into the American market amid existing sanctions.
Collapse of Venezuelan Crude Exports
Real-time export data reflects the rapid collapse in Venezuelan oil flows. From over 8 million barrels exported in December 2024, volumes fell drastically in April 2025. As of early May, exports appear to have halted entirely. Over two years, Venezuela exported 137.7 million barrels, with Chevron’s TAECJ Platform facilitating more than 72% of these. The U.S. was the largest recipient, receiving nearly 37% of total volumes, primarily through key Gulf Coast ports like Pascagoula, St. Charles, and Freeport.
Chevron’s Role and Declining U.S. Trade
Chevron’s logistical dominance in Venezuela is linked directly to U.S. refineries, with nearly all exports shipped on Aframax-class tankers suitable for Caribbean–Gulf Coast routes. As Chevron exits, Venezuela’s shipments to the U.S. are sharply contracting, and the broader bilateral oil trade is declining. Venezuela is now seeking alternative buyers, particularly in China, to compensate for lost U.S. revenues and maintain export flows under ongoing international constraints.
Freight Market Conditions and Tanker Availability
In early May 2025, crude oil freight markets are showing uneven momentum. VLCC freight rates on the MEG–China route are held at WS68 but are down 3% month-on-month. Suezmax rates from West Africa to Europe declined weekly but remain higher than last month. Aframax rates in the Mediterranean stayed stable but fell 8% from April. Tanker availability shows pressure easing in some categories, with VLCCs at Ras Tanura nearing normal activity levels, while Aframax and Suezmax sectors remain tight, especially in the Mediterranean and Baltic.
Product Tanker Trends and Regional Dynamics
Clean tanker segments are also showing varied trends. LR2 rates from the Arabian Gulf stayed steady week-on-week but are down 20% from April. Panamax Carib-to-USG rates declined but still reflect a 15% gain over the month. MR1 and MR2 segments saw continued drops in freight rates, especially on the Continent–USAC and US Gulf–Continent routes. Despite this, vessel traffic increased at some ports, such as Skikda (Algeria) and Amsterdam, where MR vessel calls surpassed annual averages, hinting at localized strength.
Tonne-Day Indicators Show Mixed Demand Signals
Dirty tonne-days saw falling momentum in VLCC and Suezmax segments, while Aframax showed earlier gains but is now facing mild corrections. Panamax tonne-days remained subdued compared to yearly averages. The MR segment’s growth rate has consistently declined since late February, with no recovery evident by the end of April.
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
