UK port traffic is expected to grow by 7.8% by 2050, reaching 453.5 million tonnes, driven by a major shift away from liquid bulk towards unitized and dry bulk cargo. This transformation is a direct result of the net-zero transition, which is profoundly impacting the country’s maritime trade landscape.
Key Forecasts for Port Freight Traffic
According to the UK Port Freight Traffic Forecasts (2024–2050), the overall growth is modest, but the composition of freight will change dramatically:
- Unitized and Dry Bulk: These segments are the primary drivers of growth. Unitized freight is forecast to increase by 56.7%, from 151.9 million tonnes in 2023 to 237.9 million tonnes in 2050. Similarly, dry bulk is expected to surge by 61.7%, from 84.4 million tonnes to 136.5 million tonnes over the same period.
- General Cargo: This category is also projected to grow, albeit at a lower rate of 12.1%, from 15.0 million tonnes in 2023 to 16.9 million tonnes in 2050.
- Liquid Bulk: This is the most significant forecast, with liquid bulk traffic expected to decrease by a substantial 63.3%, from 169.3 million tonnes in 2023 to 62.1 million tonnes in 2050. This decline is attributed to the net-zero transition, which will reduce the demand for crude oil and oil products. The shift from liquid bulk to tank containers for some shipments also contributes to this trend.
Industry Response to Electrification
The forecasts underscore that the future of UK ports lies in electrified trade. In response to this, NatPower Marine and Peel Ports Group have committed £100 million to electrify eight major ports in the UK and Ireland. This initiative aims to establish the first green shipping corridors across the Irish Sea by providing shore power infrastructure for vessels to plug into clean electricity while at berth, also known as “cold ironing.”
NatPower Marine plans to deliver a global network of 120 clean ports by 2030, investing £250 million to create a route-based charging network. This model not only helps reduce vessel emissions but also tackles Scope 3 emissions, which constitute the bulk of a port’s carbon footprint. According to Stefano D. M. Sommadossi, CEO of NatPower Marine UK, the government’s forecasts confirm that “the age of oil is ending, and the future of UK ports lies in electrified trade.”
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Source: Offshore Energy
