Norway-based classification society DNV has revealed within its new analysis that the war in Ukraine will not derail Europe’s energy transition, reports Offshore Energy.
Instead, it is expected to speed it up as countries pivot towards renewables in a bid to become independent from Russian gas more quickly, leading to faster decarbonisation.
Filling the gap
Turning away from Russian gas will accelerate Europe’s energy transition due to fewer fossil fuels in the energy mix and lower greenhouse gas emissions, DNV informed on Wednesday. A new analysis from its Energy Transition Research shows that 34 per cent of the energy mix in Europe – two percentage points more than the pre-war forecast – will come from non-fossil fuels in 2024.
Moreover, overall gas use will drop 9 per cent in 2024 compared with DNV’s pre-war model run. As explained by DNV, the biggest percentage increase is in solar, which by 2026 is up 20 per cent while the delayed retirement of some of the continent’s nuclear power plants is also an important component of filling the gap.
While DNV recognizes that some coal is needed in the very short term to meet Europe’s energy demand, its report and analysis anticipate that postponed retirements and higher nuclear utilization will be important to cover the shortfall of natural gas by 2024. DNV presumed Europe would cut Russian gas imports by 80 per cent in 2023 and 100 per cent in 2025 for this analysis.
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Source: Offshore Energy