Researchers from the University of Victoria and the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen have shattered the myth surrounding rogue waves, employing cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) to develop a predictive model.
This groundbreaking study challenges traditional beliefs about the formation of these perilous ocean phenomena, says an article published on marine insight website.
Methodology
Utilizing machine learning, the scientists analyzed data from over a billion waves, spanning 700 years of wave height and sea state measurements. This extensive dataset served as the basis for identifying the key elements contributing to the formation of rogue waves, known for their unpredictability and threat to maritime safety.
Debunking Conventional Wisdom
Contrary to the commonly held belief that rogue waves result from waves merging and stealing each other’s energy, the study identifies “linear superposition” as the primary contributing factor. This occurs when two wave systems collide, temporarily reinforcing each other and creating conditions for exceptionally massive waves.
Frequency Of Anomalous Waves
The research unveiled that anomalous waves, including extreme rogue waves exceeding twenty meters, occur more frequently than previously thought. The dataset revealed approximately 100,000 occurrences, indicating a daily incidence of a monster wave at various ocean locations.
Algorithmic Forecasting
A transformative algorithm created through this study provides the shipping sector with a valuable tool for forecasting rogue waves. Shipping companies can utilize this algorithm to plan routes, evaluate risks, and enhance overall safety measures.
Transparency For Informed Decisions
Lead author Dion Häfner emphasizes the algorithm’s transparency, setting it apart from many AI models. Users gain insights into estimated risks based on factors such as sea state, water depths, bathymetric data, and ocean movements. This transparency empowers mariners to make safer and more informed decisions.
Future Implications
As the model undergoes further refinement, it is poised to offer real-time evaluations of the threat posed by rogue waves. This advancement holds the potential to assist mariners globally in navigating the seas more safely and making expert choices in the face of unpredictable ocean conditions.
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Source: marine insight
