Xeneta reports that the recently announced 12-month trade truce between the United States and China is unlikely to revive the weakening ocean container shipping market, as freight rates continue to trend downward heading into 2026.
According to Xeneta’s latest analysis, while the agreement includes temporary suspension of port fees and slight tariff reductions, these measures have done little to offset the ongoing decline in demand. Spot container freight rates from China to the U.S. West Coast have fallen by 59% year-on-year to around US $2,147 per FEU, while rates to the U.S. East Coast dropped 48% to approximately US $3,044 per FEU.
The data also shows that container demand from China to the U.S. has weakened by nearly 13% compared to last year, intensifying competitive pressure on carriers. Xeneta projects that global spot rates could drop by as much as 25% in 2026, with long-term contract rates expected to decline by up to 10%, bringing them around 20% below December 2023 levels.
Despite the trade truce, oversupply remains a significant challenge for the container shipping market. Continuous capacity growth is expected to outpace demand recovery, especially across major Transpacific routes, leading to sustained rate volatility and weaker carrier profitability in the months ahead.
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Source: Xeneta
