During the first half of 2025, container volumes at the nine largest US ports recorded modest growth, shaped largely by fluctuating tariffs and shifting trade dynamics. While imports surged in the early months due to tariff preloading, exports continued their multi-year decline, revealing persistent structural challenges in US trade. According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen, tariff policy had a direct and visible impact on port activity and freight movements.
Tariff Spikes Drive Early Import Surge, Followed by Sharp Correction
From January to April 2025, US import volumes rose 10% year-over-year, driven by pre- loading ahead of steep tariff increases. The effective US tariff rate jumped dramatically from 2.4% in January to 26.0% in April triggering front loading of goods.
Importers also leveraged bonded and free zone warehouses to defer higher duties. However, as tariffs eased slightly and demand adjusted, import volumes dropped 6.2% in May and June. The West Coast ports were most impacted experiencing a 14.4% surge early on, followed by a 9.2% decline later.
Export Volumes Continue Downward Slide Despite New Trade Deals
While import patterns responded dynamically to tariff changes, export volumes showed continued weakness. Export throughput at major US container ports dropped 4.2% year-over-year in H1 2025. This marked a return to the downward trend seen since 2018, with only a brief uptick in H1 2024. Even with some new trade agreements and limited retaliatory tariffs from China and Canada, export volumes remain 12.5% below 2018 levels, suggesting deeper systemic issues in the US export sector.
The first half of 2025 highlights the volatility introduced by tariff shifts on US trade flows. While imports briefly surged under pressure from rising tariffs, the momentum faded by midyear. Exports, meanwhile, continued to decline, unaffected by short-term policy changes. With freight rates falling and effective tariffs still elevated at 17.6% as of August, the outlook for the rest of the year remains uncertain. Strategic trade policy and stronger export competitiveness will be key to stabilising port volumes going forward.
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Source: MARINE LINK
