- Early 2025 Imports Surge as Cargo Front-Loading Drives Artificial Boom.
- Sharp Declines Follow, With Volumes Falling Below Pre-Pandemic Trends.
- Volatility Highlights Risks of Tariff-Driven Boom-Bust Cycles.
In the latest issue of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, number 727, they shed light on the trade whiplash phenomenon. It revealed that US imports skyrocketed by 15.6% year-over-year from January to April 2025, as businesses hurried to bring in goods before tariffs kicked in. However, this surge was short-lived, with imports plummeting to -4.1% in May and an even steeper -8.2% in June, especially when you consider the pre-pandemic average of +4.0%, reports Sea Intelligence.
IMF Warning on Trade Escalations
In its most recent World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF cautioned that if trade tensions continue to rise, global GDP could take a hit, shrinking by 0.2 percentage points.
TEU/GDP Multiplier and Container Demand Impact
Sea-Intelligence utilised a “TEU/GDP” multiplier, drawing from historical data, to assess the sensitivity of container demand to changes in GDP. Their findings indicate that a contraction of 0.2 percentage points would result in a 0.23% reduction in container volume growth.
Loss of 424,000 TEU in 2025
With global container throughput projected at 184.4 million TEU in 2024, that 0.23% decline translates to a loss of approximately 424,000 TEU in 2025, highlighting the real risks associated with escalating trade tensions.
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Source: Sea Intelligence
