A recent analysis by Sea Intelligence, it was highlighted that the surge in transpacific volumes in May and June 2024 was likely driven by front-loading of imports, not a sudden consumer spending boom. New data from the US Census Bureau for June 2024 further supports this, showing that US retailers have been steadily increasing their inventories.
Inventory Trends Exceed Long-Term Expectations
The June 2024 inventory data reveals that retailers have not just maintained their inventory growth trend since 2009 but are now significantly exceeding it. The recent months have seen an unexpected upward deviation of approximately $18 billion from the long-term trend. This suggests that the current inventory buildup is more pronounced than usual.
Possible Reasons Behind the Inventory Build-Up
Several factors could be driving this increase in inventories, such as concerns over potential strikes at US East Coast ports or anticipatory moves against possible new tariffs, given the upcoming US presidential election. Regardless of the reasons, historical trends indicate that a substantial inventory rise may continue through the end of 2024.
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Source: Sea-Intelligence
