- The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Greek shipbroker Antonios Margaritis, his companies, and nearly a dozen vessels linked to Iranian oil exports, intensifying pressure on Tehran following the June Israel-Iran conflict.
- Iran maintains that all its oil on water is pre-allocated under market conditions, though analysts forecast crude output could fall from 3.3 million b/d in H1 2025 to 3 million b/d in H2 2025.
- European powers have threatened to trigger the UN “snapback mechanism” if no diplomatic progress is made by the end of August, further raising risks for Iran’s oil exports.
The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has sanctioned Greek national Antonios Margaritis, his shipping network, and close to a dozen vessels identified as part of Iran’s “shadow fleet.” These designations target companies across Greece, the Marshall Islands, and Hong Kong, along with UAE-based operators, for their role in facilitating Iranian oil exports. According to OFAC, revenues from these exports contribute to Iran’s advanced weapons programs. The growing number of sanctioned vessels is constraining the compliant tanker fleet, driving freight rates higher. The Platts index for non-scrubber VLCCs reached $34,419/day on August 21, a sharp increase from $31,699/day in March and up 117% since late July, reflecting tightening tonnage availability and rising cargo demand.
Iran’s Position
Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad dismissed speculation about unsold barrels, stressing that every barrel of Iranian oil at sea is allocated based on prevailing market conditions. “We do not have even a single barrel of oil floating on water without a plan,” he stated on August 20. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi downplayed the impact of renewed sanctions, describing them as largely psychological, while reiterating Iran’s readiness to pursue diplomatic solutions that safeguard its national interests.
Production Outlook
Despite Iran’s steady recovery in exports—from 400,000 b/d in 2020 to 1.6 million b/d in 2024 and 1.7 million b/d in Q2 2025—analysts warn that production is likely to decline under renewed sanctions pressure. S&P Global Commodity Insights projects Iranian crude output could fall from 3.3 million b/d in the first half of 2025 to 3 million b/d in the second half. The shift underscores the fragile balance between sanctions enforcement, Iranian supply resilience, and evolving market demand.
Diplomatic Developments
The sanctions coincide with heightened diplomatic tensions as the U.K., France, and Germany (the E3) set an end-of-August deadline for Iran to show progress in talks, threatening to activate the UN snapback mechanism if no breakthrough is achieved. In a joint call with his European counterparts, Araghchi warned that triggering snapback sanctions would have repercussions and emphasized that Iran will consult with allies China and Russia at the UN Security Council. He underscored Iran’s commitment to diplomacy but affirmed its resolve to act decisively in defense of its interests. Deputy foreign ministers from Iran and the EU are scheduled to resume discussions on August 26.
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Source: S&P Global
