The sentiment regarding new ship orders is indeed quite subdued in the first half of 2025, with expectations for this weak trend to persist for several more months, reports Drewry.
Looming Uncertainty
The current geopolitical climate, particularly the US tariff wars, is significantly impacting the global shipping industry by introducing a high degree of uncertainty that makes future demand for shipping unpredictable. This volatility has led to a cautious approach among shipowners, discouraging them from placing new orders due to unclear long-term returns on investment.
A major concern is the threat of potential restrictions on ordering vessels at Chinese shipyards. While the US government has temporarily suspended the USTR’s (United States Trade Representative) suggestion of levying fines for the next six months (until at least October 2025), this uncertainty has kept many shipowners on the sidelines, reluctant to commit to new investments. The USTR’s proposed actions, stemming from an investigation into China’s maritime dominance, include potentially substantial fees on Chinese-operated, Chinese-owned, and even Chinese-built vessels calling at US ports. While the latest version of these fees is toned down from initial proposals, the sheer threat is enough to cause significant hesitation.
China has historically dominated global shipbuilding, including the dry bulk vessel sector. In 2024, over 75% of new dry bulk vessel orders were placed at Chinese yards. However, this dominance has seen a notable shift in 2025. So far this year, the share of Chinese yards among all dry bulk orders has come down to 40%, reflecting the increasing caution among shipowners. The US administration’s contemplation of sanctions on China-built, -operated, or -owned ships has injected a “strategic uncertainty” that few shipowners are comfortable navigating. Even though a final resolution on these measures has been put on hold, the mere threat has been sufficient to result in a dramatic retreat in order placements at Chinese yards.
Anticipated Softening
The global shipping industry is currently experiencing a downturn in newbuilding orders, largely driven by shipowners’ reluctance to commit to investments in a climate of high prices and significant uncertainty.
Newbuilding prices are currently elevated, leading many shipowners to anticipate a possible softening shortly. This expectation makes them hesitant to lock into expensive deals now, preferring to hold out for more favorable market conditions.
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Source: Drewry
