The US may be on the cusp of another Covid-19 case surge, one expert says — but the mass vaccination of the most vulnerable Americans is likely to limit its human cost, reports CNN.
A potential fourth surge?
“I think we are going to see a surge in the number of infections,” emergency physician Dr. Leana Wen told CNN . “I think what helps this time though is that the most vulnerable — particularly nursing home residents, people who are older — are now vaccinated. And so we may prevent a spike in hospitalizations and deaths.”
Health officials have repeatedly warned about a potential fourth surge as state leaders eased restrictions and several lifted mask mandates. The first warning sign came when case numbers, after weeks of steep declines, appeared to level off — with the country still averaging tens of thousands of new cases daily. That kind of plateau previously predicted surges, some experts have said.
Cases of the worrying variants — notably the highly contagious B.1.1.7 variant — have also climbed and are set to become the dominant strain by the end of March or early April.
Meanwhile, governors and local leaders have eased restrictions on indoor gatherings, citing fewer Covid-19 cases and more vaccinations. And spring break crowds are gathering in Florida and nationwide air travel numbers are hitting pandemic-era records.
Now, as the country inches closer to 30 million reported infections, cases are rising by more than 10% in 14 states this week compared to last week, according to Johns Hopkins University data — with half of those states seeing a rise of more than 20%.
Mass vaccination
If Covid-19 cases continue to rise, the mass vaccination of our most vulnerable are likely to limit increases in hospitalizations and deaths. People age 65 and older make up more than 80% of all Covid-19 deaths, according to CDC data. Yet more than 65% of people 65 and older have had at least one vaccine dose, and 38% are fully vaccinated, which sharply cuts down on the risk of hospitalization and death.
Dr. Wen still has her concerns, though. “I think we’re going to see an increase in the number of infections, but not necessarily an increase in hospitalizations and deaths, which again is a really good thing,” she told CNN on Thursday.
“But we also note that many governors are not going to reimpose restrictions unless we see our hospitals becoming overwhelmed.”
“So we could see a situation of a lot more infections outpacing the ability of our vaccines to work and people letting down their guard but not having the restrictions in place to curb it. And I fear that we may lose, as a result, this race of variants versus vaccines.”
What’s causing some local spikes?
Michigan cases are increasing the fastest, with more than a 50% jump this week compared to last, according to the Johns Hopkins data. Delaware, Montana, Alabama and West Virginia have also seen big increases.
There’s a long list of factors contributing to the spike in cases in Michigan, according to Dr. Jennifer Morse, the medical director for the Mid-Michigan District Health Department.
Those include the rolling back of restrictions, a prison outbreak, Covid-19 fatigue, a failure to wear masks, and the B.1.1.7 variant fueling the surge, Morse told CNN. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer eased restrictions earlier this month, upping capacity limits at restaurants as well as in retail stores, gyms and other facilities.
“My one hope is that we have been really aggressively vaccinating and have been working through the different categories for vaccination quite well,” Morse told CNN. “And my hope is that that will help to keep (cases) from climbing as rampantly as (they) did back in the fall.”
Escalating hospitalizations
In West Virginia, Gov. Jim Justice said Wednesday that Covid-19 hospitalizations have “jumped up” slightly in the state, asking residents to continue their mitigation efforts “a little while longer.” “We have 70 people in the ICU, that’s up a little bit,” Justice said.
Justice had eased restrictions earlier this month, increasing capacity at bars, restaurants and other businesses to 100% and upping the social-gathering limit.
During Wednesday’s news briefing, he added that the state has had “seven outbreaks in our church community” across five counties.
Church gatherings “can really cause an issue, because we’re singing…probably embracing,” the governor said. “If you decided to go to church, please keep that pew in between you and wear your mask.”
Nearly 1 in 8 Americans fully vaccinated
Meanwhile, vaccinations have accelerated as officials race to get as many shots into arms as quickly as possible.
- More than 73.6 million Americans have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to CDC data.
- About 40 million people are fully vaccinated — roughly 12% of the US population.
But challenges — including vaccine hesitancy, disinformation and inequities — remain, and it’s not entirely clear when the US will hit herd immunity — the point at which enough people are protected against the virus to suppress spread.
Herd immunity with vaccines
On Wednesday, both Fauci and Walensky pushed back against questions about herd immunity, saying a lot depended on how quickly Americans take vaccines.
“Let’s just keep pushing to get as many people vaccinated as we possibly can,” Fauci said. “And as we do that, you will see the type of infection, the dynamics of the outbreak, get less and less and less, so whatever that time is — middle of the summer, end of the summer, early fall, we’ll be much, much better off than we are now.”
For now, the US still has a long way to go to overcome vaccine hesitancy, said National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Francis Collins.
Vaccination is the country’s best hope to get beyond the pandemic, he said, “and yet there’s all this overlay, and some of it is politics and some of it’s social media conspiracy theories and some of it is just distrust of anything that the government had anything to do with.”
“We have a long way to go yet to try to overcome that,” he told CNN on Wednesday.
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Source: CNN
