- Young Dry Bulk Tonnage to Drop 22% by 2028.
- Fleet Splits Between Modern and Ageing Vessels.
- Older Ships Face Costly Upgrades or Trade Downgrade.
The global dry bulk shipping market is going through a significant shift, particularly with a noticeable drop in the number of younger vessels. Oliver Kirkham, a Senior Valuation Analyst at Veson Nautical, shared insights indicating that the fleet is entering a phase of structural change that will alter commercial dynamics and investment strategies, reports Safety4Sea.
Sharp Drop in Young Tonnage Projected by 2028
Kirkham pointed out during his talk at the 2025 Marine Money Week in New York that the supply of dry bulk vessels younger than 15 years is expected to decrease by 22% by 2028. This decline is a result of a mix of historically low newbuilding activity and a global fleet that is ageing and increasingly failing to meet efficiency and emissions standards.
Fleet Split Between Modern and Obsolete Vessels
“We’re seeing a clear bifurcation in the fleet,” Kirkham said. “On one side, you have a rising share of modern, regulation-compliant vessels while on the other, a large and aging cohort that’s slower, less efficient, and increasingly penalised by emissions rules. That divergence is only going to widen over the next five years.” Kirkham noted that modern vessels will likely continue gaining commercial advantage, especially as scrapping activity accelerates and older vessels become less viable.
Scrapping Pressures Mount as Costs and Regulations Rise
As costs and regulations continue to rise, the pressure to scrap older ships is becoming more intense. Many of these vessels are nearing their third special survey, coinciding with stricter environmental rules and a shortage of dry dock space. Ship owners now find themselves at a critical crossroads: they can either pour significant resources into upgrading their ageing fleets or shift these ships to less profitable trades, which could lead to oversupply and lower profits.
Market Outlook Hinges on Leaner, Efficient Fleet
Looking forward, tightening supply dynamics, including increased scrapping, ageing assets, and stricter rules, will be a key force in shaping future market opportunities. “As the industry transitions toward a leaner, more efficient fleet, stakeholders need to embrace a more data-driven mindset. We’re entering a cycle where the winners will be those with the clearest view,” Kirkham concluded.
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Source: Safety4Sea
