Weekly Bulk Report: Capesize Drop While Supramax Shows Promise

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Fearnpulse has summarized the weekly bulk report for week 26, 2024.

Capesize

On the West Australia front, we see a drop in overall volumes compared to last week from miners, fewer operators, and some tenders primarily for mid to end July dates. Volumes out of East Australia and other Pacific business held steady from last week with players seeking for mid July tonnage. On C3 ex Brazil to China, we see a majority of enquiries for second half of July dates with some enquiring for forward early August dates. West Africa enquiries remain relatively robust for late July to early August dates.

Far East spot tonnage remains increasingly abundant while ballasting tonnage is increasingly tight for full July. On C5, we see fixtures concluding at mid USD 10 pmt levels by mid-week. On C3, we see fixtures concluding at low USD 27 pmt levels for mid July dates.

Panamax

This week, the Panamax market saw a continued downward trend in rates across both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Limited activity, particularly in the Atlantic, and an underwhelming South American market contributed to the decline. The Pacific arena remained lethargic, with owners discounting shorter runs to minimize exposure to depressed rates.

Despite firm fundamentals, including ton-time growth outpacing fleet growth, the market lacked sufficient cargo influx to halt the slide. The Kamsarmax index dropped below the Supramax index, suggesting limited downside from current levels. Holidays in Greece added to the subdued market sentiment, with little indication of an immediate turnaround.

Supramax

Last week’s short-lived excitement of a more robust market has slowly vaporized. While there is currently a downward pressure on rates in the Atlantic due to limited activity, particularly for the transatlantic round voyages, the increased activity on fronthaul routes from the Black Sea and the Continent is a promising sign. With more activity, we can see a meaningful impact. However, we need more demand to see the desired change.

The South Atlantic, with more tonnage available for July dates, is experiencing the pressure on the rates. USG also started to feel the pressure; the owner’s expectations to push rates further up are not materializing, and we see rates fixing below “last done”. Ultramax 63‘ dwt delivery USG for a trip with pet-coke fixed at around USD 29,000. Trip from USEC to UK with wood pellets was reported to fix on Supra at USD 20,000. Trip from ECSA to the Far East paying around USD 17,000 + USD 700,000 GBB.

The Pacific has good cargo volume and has increased activity from last week. Supra 55‘ dwt delivery S China via Indonesia, fixed USD 12,500 pd for a trip to S China. Pacific round voyages are fixed at around USD 15,000 pd, depending on the vessel’s position. We anticipate the market will be flat coming into Europe’s Holiday season unless substantial cargo volume overrides market prediction.

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Source: Fearn Pulse