Weekly Bulk Report: Capesize Falters, Supramax Stays Healthy

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Fearnleys summarizes weekly bulk report for week 17 of 2024.

Capesize

On the C5 front, we see a reasonably healthy level of enquiries from miners, operators, and tenders primarily for first half of May dates. Some operators were seen coming out for second half May and forward June dates as well. East Australia coal and volumes on other Pacific businesses have picked up with most having early to mid-May dates. Volumes out of South Africa remain relatively flat. On C3 ex Brazil to China and West Africa, volume of enquiries has continued to hold up from last week with a majority for June dates and some for late May dates. Far East tonnage is moderately abundant. Ballasting tonnage weighs on second half of May with some vessels still able to make first half of May dates. On C5, we see a downward trend thus far this week with fixtures concluding at mid USD 10 pmt levels by mid-week. On C3, fixtures concluded at mid USD 26 pmt levels for mid to late May dates.

Panamax

This week in the Panamax market reflects a generally stable yet subdued tone with several regional nuances. The market closely mirrors typical seasonal patterns, anticipating a downturn in the coming month. In the Atlantic, activity has decreased, with most recent cargoes already covered, indicating potential rate adjustments downward, particularly as the North Atlantic stabilizes without significant momentum. Conversely, the ECSA remains relatively steady with decent demand projected from mid-May. The Pacific market show signs of weakening, especially from Indonesia due to a seasonal dip in coal demand, despite a stable tonnage count. Overall market sentiment is mixed, with some regions showing firmness in rates and cargo volume, but a clear lack of bids casts uncertainty on the true market value.

Supramax

Healthy activity levels across the basin for geared sizes. Commodity prices slowly getting back to normal. Markets continued to push in line with our expectations, albeit a bit stronger than seasonality suggests. See signs of market flattening and expect a sideways trend more in line with average seasonality for the remainder of the month and following month. After days of lackluster activity, we are finally seeing more cargo volumes ex ECSA. Given the improvement in commodity prices, there will be more cargoes coming in the market in the coming weeks. Period market remains strong with all major operators scouting the market for long period tonnage.

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Source: Fearnleys