Weekly Bulk Report: Panamax & Supramax Show Bullish Trend


Fearnleys summarizes weekly bulk report for week 22 of 2024.


On the C5 front, we see volumes hold up from last week from miners and operators primarily for the 10th of June onwards to second half of June dates. Volumes out of East Australia and other Pacific business has dampened. South Africa saw a tick increase in enquiries for second half of June to late June dates. On C3 ex Brazil to China, we see players primarily looking for July dates with limited enquiries for second half of June dates. Far East spot tonnage is relatively abundant for early dates. Ballasting tonnage is evenly weight on second half of June and July dates with some able to make first half of June dates. On C5, fixtures conclude at low USD 10 pmt levels. On C3, fixtures concluded at low to mid 24 pmt levels for index dates.


The Panamax market is currently showing a bullish trend with 420 vessels heading to or in the South Atlantic, surpassing the critical threshold of 375 vessels that historically triggers significant market rallies ranging from 33% to 100% within 2 to 4 weeks. This trend suggests that the next two weeks might be the lowest market levels seen for the remainder of the year. Following a long weekend in the UK and USA, the market started sluggishly with weak activity and sentiment in the Atlantic region, while Asia presented mixed conditions with some demand offset by a lengthening tonnage list. Despite reasonable tonnage counts, the lack of cargo volume from the USEC and Baltic regions contributes to a widening bid-offer spread and a generally softening market outlook.


Transatlantic fixtures on Handy reportedly done at 19k levels. ECSA fronthaul on Supra/Ultra done at USD 25k levels. Our research forecast points toward year-to-date highs in the third quarter, driven by factors viz market seasonality, leading macro indicators, and strong fundamental data. While the market may continue fluctuating within a range of USD 15,000 to 16,000 per day for the next two months, a rally is expected within the coming month.

Despite recent market weakening, a generally bullish outlook for June onwards is maintained. However, weak manufacturing activity in the Eurozone is dampening market fundamentals. The forthcoming release of May manufacturing PMIs for the EU will offer more insight into the situation and the potential pace of expansion. Although Austria’s recent report showed improvement, the manufacturing sector overall remains in contraction.

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Source: Fearnpulse