- Capesize activity in the Pacific remains steady, but rising tonnage supply is capping further rate gains.
- Atlantic routes show mixed trends, with some firmness in the North Atlantic and stable support in the South.
- Panamax rates may face near-term pressure as spot activity slows across both Atlantic and Pacific basins.
- Supramax and Handysize markets remain subdued overall, with the Atlantic more stable than the Pacific.
The dry bulk market continued to present a mixed picture across major vessel segments during Week 25, with regional variances shaping chartering sentiment. While some Pacific routes remained active, growing tonnage lists are beginning to weigh on rate trends. In contrast, certain Atlantic sectors offered more stability, though forward movement appeared restrained. These developments were detailed in the latest Dry Bulk Market update from Fearnleys Weekly Report for the week ending June 18, 2025.
Capesize
In the Pacific, the Capesize segment is showing signs of strain as a growing availability of tonnage starts to exert downward pressure on sentiment. Despite active trading, particularly on the C5 route where Rio Tinto fixed at USD 9.60 pmt for early July dates, the outlook remains cautious. The modest rate improvement suggests demand is steady, though mounting supply could limit further gains. In the Atlantic, activity remains varied. The South Atlantic benefits from light ballast traffic, providing some support, while the North Atlantic shows tightening conditions as the month progresses. On the C3 route, recent fixtures—such as CSN fixing in the low USD 25s for mid-July loading—point to a firm tone, but the broader momentum seems to have paused.
Panamax
Panamax activity suggests the market may be reaching a near-term ceiling. Softening spot volumes are starting to pressure the 5TC index, which could return to mid-10,000s levels. In the Atlantic, visibility remains limited. North Atlantic routes are subdued, while South America shows a weaker trend, although it still manages to secure premiums for prompt transatlantic trips. In the Pacific, firm demand from Japanese tenders and consistent East Australian activity has supported rates selectively. However, a clear divide is evident, with oversupply in some areas weighing on sentiment. Owners are advised to secure coverage while current levels last, as charterers remain cautious amid shifting sentiment.
Supramax
The Supramax and Handysize sectors remained largely steady but quiet. The Atlantic region provided relatively more resilience, with the US Gulf contributing to firmer tones and the South Atlantic maintaining steady demand. This underpinned a modestly positive outlook in the West. However, the Continent and Mediterranean regions continued to struggle with limited fresh inquiry, keeping pressure on rates. In the Pacific, sluggish demand and a long list of open vessels kept the market subdued, with limited signs of any near-term recovery.
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Source: Fearnleys AS
