In the latest update on global shipping activities, the weekly Cancelled Sailings Tracker provides a detailed overview of blank sailings across major alliances compared to the total scheduled sailings. This snapshot offers valuable insights into disruptions in the global shipping network and the implications for supply chain logistics.
Overview of Cancelled Sailings
The analysis for the week commencing 27 September highlights the impact of blank sailings across the major East-West head haul trade routes: Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe & Mediterranean. Between week 40 (30 September – 6 October) and week 44 (28 October – 3 November), 100 sailings have been cancelled out of a total of 693 scheduled, resulting in a cancellation rate of 14%.
The majority of these blank sailings (63%) are concentrated on the Transpacific Eastbound routes, followed by 23% on the Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean trades, and 14% on the Transatlantic Westbound routes.
Alliance Cancellations and Non-Alliance Services
Over the next five weeks, the three major shipping alliances have announced various levels of cancellations. THE Alliance leads with 23 cancellations, followed by OCEAN Alliance with 22, and 2M with 13. Non-Alliance services have also contributed to the disruption with 42 blank sailings during this period. Despite these cancellations, there has been a modest improvement in schedule reliability, with an average of 86% of ships expected to sail as planned over the next five weeks.
Freight Rate Movements Across Trade Routes
In addition to the impact of blank sailings, freight rates on key East-West trade routes have experienced significant changes ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday. On 26 September, Drewry’s WCI Composite Index reported a 7% week-on-week drop, with the average rate for a 40ft container falling to $3,691.
Rates on the Transpacific routes dropped by 4%, while those on the Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean routes plunged by 13%. In contrast, Transatlantic rates saw a slight increase of 1%.
Impact of ILA Strike on US Ports and Global Supply Chains
A looming strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is expected to further disrupt shipping operations, particularly affecting East Coast and Gulf ports. Ports, carriers, and regulators have already enacted contingency measures, including halting inland cargo movements and introducing congestion-related surcharges.
In preparation for the strike, carriers have suspended new export bookings and introduced surcharges ranging from $400 to $3,000 per container starting 1 October. A prolonged strike could exacerbate supply chain disruptions, not only within the US but across global shipping schedules, potentially extending into 2025. The effects would be felt most acutely in Europe and Asia, where container freight rates and shipping availability could face significant strain.
Conclusion
The current shipping environment remains volatile, with high rates of blank sailings and fluctuating freight prices reflecting broader market uncertainties. The potential for industrial action at key US ports further underscores the need for businesses to stay informed and prepared for potential disruptions in global supply chains.
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Source: Drewry
