Sarjak Container Lines, which operates extensively in the region, continues to witness evolving on-ground realities and shifting sentiment among vessel operators. While recent reports of fewer attacks in the Red Sea offer some optimism, industry experts like Shah warn that the situation remains far from stable. His insights highlight not only the ongoing security risks but also the significant market consequences tied to how quickly shipping lines choose to resume Suez Canal transits.
Temporary Calm Does Not Equal Lasting Safety
Despite a drop in reported incidents, Shah stresses that the region remains unpredictable. Past pauses in hostilities have been short-lived, and risk assessments from insurers still classify the area as high-threat. As a result, war-risk premiums remain elevated, keeping costs high for operators.
Shah notes that a “brief reduction in attacks does not create the level of sustained safety required for crews and vessels.” This means industry-wide confidence has yet to recover, and a mass return to Suez routes remains unlikely in the immediate term.
He also warns of the market implications if carriers were to resume transit too quickly. A sudden shift could flood global trade lanes with excess tonnage, especially at a time when supply already exceeds demand. This would likely lead to falling freight rates, disrupted schedules, and increased blank sailings undermining efforts to stabilise the market.
Gradual Re-Entry: The Only Path to Operational and Market Stability
Shah argues that a phased return, anchored in proven security improvements and lower insurance premiums, is the most realistic and responsible strategy. Such a measured approach would allow carriers to:
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Reintroduce Suez routes slowly
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Avoid sudden shocks to capacity
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Adjust port rotations and feeder networks smoothly
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Keep charter rates from swinging sharply
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Maintain predictable equipment flows for shippers
Another key factor is operational complexity. Global liner networks have been restructured for almost a year to operate via the Cape of Good Hope. Alliance loops, transit schedules, and bunkering plans were redesigned around this detour. Reversing these arrangements will take weeks if not months of careful planning.
Shah compares the situation to reopening a long-damaged bridge: even if declared “temporarily safe,” users wait for full structural assurance before returning. The Red Sea corridor, he says, requires the same level of proven stability before global shipping can confidently pivot back.
There is no doubt that large-scale traffic will eventually return to the Red Sea its strategic value to global trade is too significant. However, Shah emphasizes that the speed of return matters even more than the return itself. A rapid resumption risks destabilising already fragile market conditions by magnifying excess capacity. In contrast, a phased approach supports balance, predictability, and commercial sustainability.
Drawing insight from Sarjak’s operations in the region, Shah concludes that caution remains the industry’s guiding principle. Ultimately, only demonstrated and enduring stability both operational and geopolitical will determine the pace of the Red Sea’s full reopening.
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Source: AJOT
