- WorldoMeter shows new cases and new deaths being reported all over the world.
- A country the daily growth is 35 – 40%, things are out of control, if they go high and come down to around 20% the situation is stabilizing.
- It depends on Transmission Rate, Case Fatality Rate, and asymptomatic transmission.
- About 80% of those who died were over the age of 60.
- 75% of them had pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.
According to statistics published in WorldoMeter, dramatic changes are happening every day with new cases and new deaths being reported all over the world.
Key highlights from the world
With a significantly smaller population and a two-month warning, the US is already 42 compared to 56 for China.
A brilliant quant, having looked at New Case rates over a couple of days, came up with a personal benchmark. If in a country the daily growth is 35 – 40%, things are out of control, if they go high and come down to around 20% the situation is stabilizing.
How dangerous is the virus?
There are three parameters to understand in order to assess the magnitude of the risk posed by this novel coronavirus:
- Transmission Rate (Ro) – number of newly infected people from a single case
- Case Fatality Rate (CFR) – percent of cases that result in death
- Determine whether an asymptomatic transmission is possible
How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)
The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.
- WHO’s estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5.
- Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58.
- Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5.
- An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.
- For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.
Fatality Rate (case fatality ratio or CFR) of the Wuhan Coronavirus
The novel coronavirus’ case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2%, in the WHO press conference held on January 29, 2020. However, it noted that, without knowing how many were infected, it was too early to be able to put a percentage on the mortality rate figure.
- A prior estimate had put that number at 3%.
- Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate, according to epidemiologists.
- For comparison, the case fatality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.
Incubation Period – how long it takes for symptoms to appear?
Symptoms of COVID-19 may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 (estimated ranges vary from 2-10 days, 2-14 days, and 10-14 days), during which the virus is contagious but the patient does not display any symptom (asymptomatic transmission).
Age and conditions of Coronavirus cases
According to early estimates by China’s National Health Commission (NHC), about 80% of those who died were over the age of 60 and 75% of them had pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.
According to the WHO Situation Report no. 7 issued on January 27:
- The median age of cases detected outside of China is 45 years, ranging from 2 to 74 years.
- 71% of cases were male.
- A study of 138 hospitalized patients with NCIP found that the median age was 56 years (interquartile range, 42-68; range, 22-92 years) and 75 (54.3%) were men.
- The WHO, in its Myth busters FAQs, addresses the question: “Does the new coronavirus affect older people, or are younger people also susceptible?“ by answering that:
- People of all ages can be infected by the novel coronavirus COVID-19.
- Older people and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus.
Comparisons
- Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses. This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.
- SARS (November 2002 to July 2003): was a coronavirus that originated from Beijing, China, spread to 29 countries, and resulted in 8,096 people infected with 774 deaths (fatality rate of 9.6%). Considering that SARS ended up infecting 5,237 people in mainland China, Wuhan Coronavirus surpassed SARS on January 29, 2020, when Chinese officials confirmed 5,974 cases of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). One day later, on January 30, 2020, the novel coronavirus cases surpassed even the 8,096 cases worldwide which were the final SARS count in 2003.
- MERS (in 2012) killed 858 people out of the 2,494 infected (fatality rate of 34.4%).
Ways to navigate the dashboard
The site comprises of a great dashboard from where you can lay your hands to obtain interesting information.
One notable thing about the Worldometer dashboard is that it is the most frequently updated dashboard and hence, compared to official sources, speaks truth faster.
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Source: Worldometer
