The global tanker fleet is entering 2026 under mounting structural pressures as aging tonnage intensifies supply constraints, reports Safety4sea.
While headline fleet numbers continue to show moderate growth, the underlying age profile of vessels paints a more nuanced—and potentially challenging—picture for industry stakeholders.
An ageing backbone amid tight fundamentals
As of the end of 2025, the active global tanker fleet (above 10,000 dwt) stands at 7,861 vessels with a combined capacity of around 709 million dwt, and an average age of approximately 13.7 years.
However, the distribution of age within the fleet underscores a pronounced vintage component. Nearly 28 % of tankers are already in the 16–20‑year bracket, and almost 1,000 units have surpassed 21 years of service—indicating a growing reliance on older tonnage in mainstream trades.
2026: A milestone year for ageing vessels
One of the most striking projections from Xclusiv’s analysis is the forecast that around 580 tankers will exceed 25 years of age in 2026. This milestone highlights the accelerating pace at which aging is reshaping the fleet: while new deliveries are scheduled, they may not be sufficient to offset the natural attrition and efficiency loss among older units.
Looking ahead, nearly 1,030 tankers could cross the same 25‑year threshold by 2028, even as the orderbook continues to expand—signalling that net capacity growth could struggle to keep pace with aging and retirement patterns.
Orderbook growth versus structural supply tightness
The global tanker orderbook has expanded, with 1,238 vessels slated for future delivery—representing roughly 15.7 % of the current fleet in unit terms and 16.7 % in deadweight tonnage. These newbuilds, especially in segments such as Suezmax and Small Tankers, are part of a broader renewal cycle.
Yet, the reality is more complex. A sizable share of the ageing fleet has drifted into sanctioned or “shadow” operations, vessels that rarely return to conventional trades and often operate inefficiently, whether as floating storage units or on extended multipoint voyages. This reduces the effective supply of tonnage truly available for mainstream commercial activity, despite rising orderbook figures.
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Source: Safety4sea
