Dry bulk closed 2025 in a very “old-school” way: not through a demand explosion, but through utilization tightening, timing and just enough friction to turn small shifts into big rate moves, reports Safety4sea, according to Xclusiv Shipbrokers.
The recovery was broad-based across sizes, with volatility clearly higher in H2. Capesizes were the headline act, rallying from roughly USD 7–10k/day early in the year to a peak near USD 45k/day in December.
Mid-sizes delivered less drama but more consistency
Kamsarmax improved into the USD 15–18k/day range mid-year, Ultramax peaked around USD 18k/day and stayed above average despite a Q4 correction, while Handysize climbed steadily to around USD 16k/day by year-end.
Under the hood, trade was stable rather than breakout. Global dry seaborne volumes edged up to 7.2bn tonnes in 2025 (+1.4% YoY), and the cargo mix remained dominated by the big two: coal at 2.1bn tonnes (29%) and iron ore at 1.88bn tonnes (26%).
Beyond them, the “middle layer” still matters for keeping basins active and ballasting optionality alive, with other ores at 0.65bn tonnes (9%), grains at 0.63bn (9%), and project cargoes around 0.56bn (8%).
Demand concentration remains the defining feature
China absorbs close to 3.0bn tonnes, or 42% of total, dwarfing the next importers (India 7%, Japan 6%). On the supply side, Australia leads origins at 1.51bn tonnes (21%), followed by China (13%), Indonesia (10%), and Brazil (10%).
Supply growth stayed controlled, but the age profile is turning into the real swing factor. The active fleet increased to 14,573 ships and 1,064m DWT in 2025, while the orderbook-to-fleet ratio edged up to 11.0% in DWT terms, still moderate by historical standards.
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Source: Safety4sea
