Blank Sailings Surge: East-West Trade Routes Face 10% Cancellation Rate

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  • Blank Sailings (Weeks 48-52): 70 sailings canceled across East-West trade lanes, representing a 10% cancellation rate.
  • Impact on Trade Routes: Transpacific Eastbound: 50% of cancellations, Transatlantic Westbound: 27%, Asia-North Europe & Med: 23%.
  • Freight rates remain stable with Drewry’s Composite Freight Index at $3,412 per 40ft container, though fluctuations in specific routes were observed.

Between November 25 and December 29, 2024, out of 693 scheduled sailings in key East-West trade lanes, 70 sailings (10%) have been canceled. These blank sailings are primarily driven by market pressures, impacting carriers’ strategies to maintain freight rates, reports Drewry.

Weekly Cancelled Sailings Snapshot

Breakdown by Alliance:

  1. The Alliance, OCEAN Alliance, and 2M: Each announced 14 blank sailings.
  2. Non-Alliance Services: Account for 28 cancellations.

Freight Rate Trends

  1. Drewry’s Composite Freight Index dropped slightly by 1% this week to $3,412 per 40ft container, though the average index for November ($3,432) is up 5% compared to October ($3,272).
  2. Rate fluctuations include:
    1. Shanghai–New York: +16%.
    2. Shanghai–Genoa: +23%.
    3. Transpacific Routes: -6%.

Asia-Europe Contracts and GRIs

Asia-Europe contract negotiations are intensifying, pressuring carriers to increase spot rates.

However, GRI (General Rate Increases) mid-November hikes appear unsustainable, prompting additional cancellations as a strategic response to stabilize rates.

Operational Challenges for Shippers

Shippers should brace for:

  1. Declines in schedule reliability, with 10% of vessels expected to miss schedules.
  2. Potential disruptions in Asia-Europe/Med routes due to rate pressures.

Advisory Services for Shippers/BCOs

Our Container Capacity Weekly Insight offers a comprehensive subscription package, including:

  1. Detailed analysis of port waiting times (e.g., Los Angeles, Long Beach).
  2. Freight rate forecasts and advice for contract negotiations.
  3. Surcharge insights to help mitigate disruptions.

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Source: Drewry