The demand for oil is expected to grow next year after a very poor 2015. Supply growth is likely to be minimal, competition from other sectors will maintain pressure on the breakbulk shipping market.
The IMF has downgraded its expectations for both GDP and trade volume growth for 2015 and 2016. Added to this, container shipping demand recorded its slowest rate of growth in the third quarter of this year since 1979 (excluding 2009).
While demand is growing (average annual growth of 3% in the period to 2018) due to competition from other shipping sectors, the multipurpose fleet share is only expected to reach average annual growth of 1.4% over the same period.
“Overcapacity coupled with low freight rates is still a challenge for the profitability of dry bulk and container shipping sectors, and this is increasing their competition for both project and breakbulk cargoes,” continued Oatway.
Meanwhile, the project carrier fleet is growing at a much faster rate than the simpler multipurpose fleet and vessel technology is improving every year, whether in terms of lift capacity or design. This sector’s ability to innovate, for example with the recent delivery of vessels equipped with DP systems, will be critical to its future in the face of continuing market share erosion of conventional commodities.
Source: Drewry
