Dry Bulk Insights: Market Dynamics And Outlook

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Capesize

On the C5 front, we see a reasonably healthy volume of enquiries from miners for early April dates and operators from early to mid April dates. Several were seen for second half of April and forward May dates. In comparison, things were quiet on the East Australia coal front at the beginning of the week but gradually picked up as we approach mid-week. Volumes on other Pacific business and South Africa remained flat from last week. On C3 ex Brazil to China and West Africa, we see enquiries primarily for second half of April. Tonnage in Far East remains moderately tight. Ballasting tonnage weighs heavily on April with seemingly few ships left for late March. On C5, we observe the same trend as last week; starting off with fixtures concluding at USD 13 pmt levels and retreating to high USD 11 pmt levels by mid-week. On C3, we see fixtures concluding at USD 28 to USD 29 pmt levels for second half of April dates.

Panamax

The Panamax market has seen divided opinions recently, with the BPI timecharter average slightly up but facing skepticism over its peak, amid a backdrop of a weakening FFA market leading to stand-offs. Despite a subdued start to the week, positive sentiment persists, supported by stable fundamentals across both Atlantic and Asian regions, suggesting potential for future gains. The market is closely watching cargo flow and tonnage availability, crucial for maintaining or improving rate levels, amidst a cautious approach from charterers in response to mixed market signals and firm levels i Supramax n areas like ECSA.

Supramax

The Pacific and Indian Ocean: On Supra/Ultra sizes, we see lower volumes in terms of cargo in the market. NOPAC RV being done at mid USD 13,000 levels and backhaul trips being priced at around USD 11,000 levels. Meantime on the MEG-India side, the usual WCI-China trips being fixed at USD 17/18,000 levels and inter-MEG trips being done at USD 16,000 mark. Backhaul trips being done at USD 7,000 levels on Supramax.

The Atlantic markets: The USG market remains firm cue the low tonnage count and increased cargo volume. TA being fixed around mid USD 15,000 levels and fronthaul voyages being done tick over USD 20,000 mark. On the ECSA side, tonnage availability remains tight and trips to Far East being done at high USD 20,000 levels whereas TA trips being done at USD 20,000 levels.

The market on Handy remains firm with ECSA – fronthaul trips being done at USD 24,000 levels and transatlantic trips paying around USD 20,000.

With only 3 months to go for the monsoon season to start in India, we can expect to see less activity on the iron biz from WCI in the coming months and ships being repositioned accordingly. On the other hand, there is still potential for an upside in the Atlantic given the ECSA grain season is not yet at peak levels. Meantime, period market remains active with couple fixtures reported this week. Healthy rates and activity in the Atlantic overall. However, as they say ‘Every storm runs out of rain eventually, even a “perfect” one, but the forecast for markets next week is likely more of the same.

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Source: Fearnpulse